Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
006
FNUS75 KTFX 141300
FWSTFX
Spot Forecast for Mike Renig RX...USFS
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
600 AM MST Thu Nov 14 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MST on November 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Breezy conditions with gusts to 25 or 30 mph are expected today
as strong mid level winds pass overhead. Expect winds to gradually
decrease through the afternoon, though winds will still be
gusting to 20 mph at sunset and will continue to diminish
overnight. Moisture works into the area on Friday, with light snow
becoming possible by early afternoon and likely (>60% chance) by
1700. Any accumulations will be light with this system and
generally around a tenth of an inch.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
CWR.................5 percent.
Max temperature.....35-40.
Min humidity........50-55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to the
west around 10 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 20 to 25 mph decreasing to around 15 mph
late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MST) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........27 31 10 11 15 29 41 47 35 19
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 0
Temp............30 32 34 35 36 36 37 35 35 32
RH..............77 73 65 61 60 58 55 57 60 67
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..15 15 20 20 15 15 15 15 10 10
20 FT wind gust.30 30 30 30 30 25 25 25 20 20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 1.5 3.0 4.0 5.0 5.5 5.5 4.5 2.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SW W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.20 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 20 15
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
CWR.................5 percent.
Min temperature.....21-26.
Max humidity........80-85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 15 mph shifting to the southwest
around 5 mph overnight, then shifting to the
east after 3 am.
Haines Index........
TIME (MST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........14 16 15 17 20 19 27 30 23 37 43 35
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Temp............29 28 27 26 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 24
RH..............71 74 79 78 81 83 82 84 84 85 86 83
20 FT wind dir..W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W
20 FT wind spd..10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.15 15 15 15 15 10 10 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W SW SE E
Transp wind spd.15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 5 5 5 5
Haines index....3 3 M M M M M M M M M M
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent) then becoming
cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of snow late in
the morning. Snow likely late in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 20 percent late in the
afternoon.
Max temperature.....29-34.
Min humidity........69-74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
north in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 5 mph shifting to the north 10
to 15 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........45 47 66 79 80 80 80 80 90 90 90 91
Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY
Weather type.... SN SN SN SN SN SN SN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 20
Temp............24 23 24 26 28 29 30 31 31 30 29 27
RH..............82 84 84 82 80 79 76 74 74 77 82 87
20 FT wind dir..SW SW W W NW N N N N N N N
20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10
20 FT wind gust. 10 10 10 10 10 15 15 15 15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.5 2.5 3.0 2.5 1.5 1.0
Transp wind dir.E NE NE NE NE NE NE N N N N N
Transp wind spd.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 15
Haines index....M 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
$$
Forecaster...Ludwig
Requested by...Lewis Tafelmeyer
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2426526.0/TFX
.DELDT 11/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL lewis.tafelmeyer@usda.gov, tfx.ops@noaa.gov