535
FNUS75 KTFX 281423
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Elk Smith Unit 11b...USFS
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
723 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MST on March 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Upper level ridging building in over the Northern Rockies will
remain in place through Sunday afternoon/evening, with this ridge
bringing continued above normal temperatures and dry conditions to
the incident area through the end of the work week and weekend.
Even with clear skies and the warm temperatures, mixing may be
limited thanks to a surge of warm air aloft during the day on
Sunday. A weak cold front will then begin to advance south during
the late afternoon/evening hours on Sunday, bringing a wind shift
to the north. Breezy and gusty north to northeast winds then
develop during the day on Monday as an upper level disturbance
moves over the Northern Rockies, with light snow overspreading the
incident area. Latest probabilities from 0500 Monday to 0500
Tuesday support an 85% chance for 1", 60% chance for 2", and 20%
chance for 4" of snow.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of thunder...MISSING.
Max temperature.....51-56.
Min humidity........27-32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds around 5 mph shifting to the north
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 10 mph shifting to the northwest
                    early in the afternoon, then shifting to the
                    northeast in the afternoon.

TIME (MST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........20  20  20  26  26  26  40  40  40  51
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of thdr (%).M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Temp............35  40  45  50  52  53  53  53  51  49
RH..............41  38  35  33  32  31  32  33  35  39
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   NW  N   NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  5   5   5   10  10  10  10

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of snow
                    early in the morning.
CWR.................5 percent increasing to 25 percent early in the
                    morning.
Chance of thunder...MISSING.
Min temperature.....28-33.
Max humidity........75-80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest early in the evening, then shifting
                    to the northeast early in the morning.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 15 mph.

TIME (MST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........51  51  56  56  56  61  61  61  65  65  65  76
Weather cov.....                                            CHC
Weather type....                                            SN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10  30
Chc of thdr (%).M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Temp............46  41  38  36  35  34  33  32  31  30  30  30
RH..............44  51  56  59  61  64  69  73  77  79  79  79
20 FT wind dir..N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   NE
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of snow
                    in the morning, then snow likely late in the
                    morning. Snow late in the afternoon.
CWR.................25 percent increasing to 40 percent late in the
                    morning.
Chance of thunder...MISSING.
Max temperature.....30-35.
Min humidity........71-76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts to
                    around 25 mph shifting to the north around 15
                    mph with gusts to around 30 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 15 to 20 mph.

TIME (MST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........76  76  86  86  86  85  85  85  87  87  87  89
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF
Weather type....SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............30  30  30  30  30  40  40  40  40  40  40  M
Chc of thdr (%).M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Temp............30  30  30  30  31  31  32  32  32  31  29  28
RH..............80  80  80  79  77  76  77  79  80  80  80  80
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  25  25  25  25  25  25  30
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Transp wind dir.N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   NE  NE
Transp wind spd.15  15  15  15  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20

$$

Forecaster...Moldan/Ludwig
Requested by...Noelle Zinn
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2504282.0/TFX
.DELDT 02/28/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL noelle.zinn@usda.gov, tfx.ops@noaa.gov