795
FNUS75 KTFX 202339
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Dalton Fire...Southwest Monana Incident Management Team
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
539 PM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 MDT on July 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...Potential for gusty winds and low humidity Wed and Thu...

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible, mostly before 9 PM. Storms
will produce brief rainfall and wind gusts up to 35 mph. The
airmass should be more stable Sunday, so no storms are expected.
The potential for an isolated storm is increasing for late Monday
afternoon, but overall still less than 10 percent chance at this
time.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................2 until 2100, then 1.
Min temperature.....54-58.
Max humidity........62-67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northeast winds around 5 mph, becoming downslope
                    by late evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the evening.
 Ridgetop...........Northeast 20 to 25 mph shifting to the east
                    overnight, then decreasing to 10 to 15 mph
                    after 3 am.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........25     25     22     23     22     22
Weather cov.....S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC
CWR.............10     10     10     0      0      0
LAL.............2      2      2      1      1      1
Temp............89     85     73     66     62     56
RH..............19     21     34     44     52     62
20 ft wind......NE 5   NE 5   E 5    E 5    E 5    E 5
20 ft wind gust.15     15     15     15     10     10
Ridgetop wind...NE 20  NE 25  E 25   E 25   E 20   E 10

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....88-93.
Min humidity........15-20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming east around 5 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
 Ridgetop...........East 5 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth early in the morning.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........23     23     24     29     29     27
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............54     62     77     84     88     90
RH..............66     56     39     28     23     21
20 ft wind......E 0    E 0    E 5    E 5    E 5    NE 5
20 ft wind gust.10     10     15     15     15     15
Ridgetop wind...E 5    E 10   E 10   E 10   E 10   E 10
Haines index....M      3      3      3      3      3

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Haze early in the
                    evening.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....52-57.
Max humidity........59-64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......East winds around 5 mph.
 Ridgetop...........East 10 to 15 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph
                    early in the evening, then shifting to the
                    southeast overnight decreasing to around 15 mph
                    after 3 am.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........27     27     12     6      6      5
Weather cov.....       DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....NONE   HAZE   HAZE   HAZE   HAZE   HAZE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............89     86     74     68     62     56
RH..............21     23     33     43     51     58
20 ft wind......NE 5   E 5    E 5    E 5    E 5    E 5
20 ft wind gust.15     15     15     15     15     10
Ridgetop wind...E 10   E 20   E 25   SE 25  SE 20  SE 15

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Haze early in the
                    morning.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....92-97.
Min humidity........12-17 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming east around 5 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
 Ridgetop...........Southeast 10 to 15 mph becoming east 0 to 5 mph
                    in the afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........4   4   4   4   4   4   9   9   9   19  19  19
Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....HAZ HAZ HAZ HAZ
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............54  57  62  68  74  81  86  89  91  92  93  93
RH..............62  58  51  44  37  30  25  21  19  18  17  16
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..0   0   0   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15
Ridge wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E
Ridge wind spd..15  15  15  15  10  10  10  5   0   0   5   5

$$
Forecaster...Brusda
Requested by...Tavis Campbell
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2418354.23/TFX
.DELDT 07/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mthdc@firenet.gov,tfx.ops@noaa.gov,campbelltavis@gmail.com