035
FNUS75 KTFX 151202
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Elk Creek Piles Unit 12...USFS
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
602 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MDT on October 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

An Pacific trough and low level moisture will maintain general
cool and damp conditions with light winds for the next 24 hours.
There will be periods of rain and snow, but the focus of wetting
rains will be farther east of the burn site. Drier and breezier
conditions arrive Thursday night and continue into the weekend.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain and snow late in the morning, then chance
                    of rain showers in the afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent.
Chance of thunder...3 percent.
Max temperature.....48-53.
Min humidity........62-67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light and variable winds.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South to southeast winds around 5 mph, becoming north
                    in the afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........61  63  57  56  52  67  72  62  64
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RS  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............32  41  44  44  46  48  48  47  49
RH..............85  72  69  68  67  67  67  67  68
20 FT wind dir..S   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N
20 FT wind spd..0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.5 1.0
Transp wind dir.S   SE  E   SE  N   NE  NE  N   N
Transp wind spd.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    in the evening. Chance of snow late in the
                    evening, then chance of rain and snow
                    overnight.
CWR.................10 percent.
Chance of thunder...3 percent.
Min temperature.....25-30.
Max humidity........95-100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light and variable.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Variable around 5 mph.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........64  56  71  67  65  62  55  57  60  68  69  64
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC     CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RS      RS  RS  RS  RS  RS
Tstm cov........
CWR.............20  20  20  20  20  20  10  10  10  10  10  10
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............45  41  38  34  33  32  32  31  31  31  30  30
RH..............75  86  98  98  100 100 100 99  97  94  89  90
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..0   0   0   0   0   0   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   10          10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Transp wind dir.NE  N   NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW
Transp wind spd.5   5   5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of snow
                    early in the morning. Chance of rain in the
                    morning, then slight chance of rain in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....54-59.
Min humidity........43-48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds around 5 mph.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 10 mph increasing to west
                    around 20 mph.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........65  65  65  65  65  65  40  40  40  40  40  40
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RS  RS  RS  RS  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............30  28  30  36  45  48  51  53  55  55  55  53
RH..............89  93  85  73  55  49  48  48  48  48  48  48
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5 1.0 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.0 2.0
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  20  20

$$
Forecaster...Greely
Requested by...noelle zinn
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2523616.0/TFX
.DELDT 10/15/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL noelle.zinn@usda.gov, tfx.ops@noaa.gov