651
FNUS75 KTFX 171421
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Elk Creek Unit 13...Forest Service
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
721 AM MST Fri Jan 17 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MST on January 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A cold airmass moves into the region overnight and will continue
to deepen across the region under a northerly flow through the
weekend. Periods of light snow or flurries are likely to persist
through Saturday with only minor snow accumulation of around an
inch to as much as 2 inches through Saturday afternoon. Breezy
north winds and temperatures falling to the single digits above
zero by tonight will crease wind chills as low as around zero
later this afternoon into tonight. An secondary push of very cold
Arctic air surges south along the Rockies reaching the area
Saturday. This will produce a period of stronger north winds,
gusting up to 40 mph for a period Saturday morning. Temperatures
will fall below zero late Saturday afternoon and remain below
zero through Sunday night with periods of wind chill as low as 20
below zero during this period.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Periods of light
                    snow or flurries through the day.
CWR.................20 percent
Max temperature.....15-20 early this falling through the afternoon.
Min humidity........55-55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around
                    35 mph becoming northeast 10 to 15 mph late in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 15 to 20 mph.

TIME (MST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........88  86  82  81  83  91  91  92  93  89
Weather cov.....LKY CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  20  20  20  20  20  20  10
Temp............14  16  15  17  16  15  15  13  13  12
RH..............63  60  59  55  57  57  58  59  59  65
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..20  20  15  15  15  15  10  10  5   5
20 FT wind gust.40  35  35  30  30  25  20  20  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.0
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE
Transp wind spd.20  20  20  20  15  15  15  10  10  10

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent. Period of light
                    snow or flurries.
CWR.................15 percent.
Max temperature.....6-11.
Min humidity........48-53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to
                    around 25 mph. A period 30-40 mph gusts is expected
                    Saturday morning
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 15 to 20 mph decreasing to around 10 mph
                    late in the morning.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........92  91  91  91  87  82  82  82  74  74  74  43
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............20  20  20  20  20  10  10  10  10  10  10  0
Temp............3   2   1   2   3   5   6   5   3   1   -1  -3
RH..............67  67  67  65  60  56  54  53  53  54  56  58
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.25  25  25  20  20  20  20  20  15  15  15  10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 1.0 0.5
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  W   SW
Transp wind spd.20  20  20  20  15  10  10  10  10  10  5   5
Haines index....M   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

$$
Forecaster...Hoenisch
Requested by...Matthew Baker
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2500409.4/TFX
.DELDT 01/17/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL matthew.baker2@usda.gov, tfx.ops@noaa.gov