062
FXUS65 KTFX 082230
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
430 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Heat continues through Wednesday, along with a few gusty
   showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

 - Cold front pushes through Thursday, bringing a few showers
   along with much cooler temperatures.

 - Seasonable temperatures this weekend along with dry
   conditions, before another cold front pushes through early next
   week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 253 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025/

Upper level ridging currently entrenched over the Western US has
brought a warm air mass into North Central and Southwestern
Montana, with many lower elevation locations reaching into the 90s
this afternoon. While skies have been clear so far today, we have
noticed a few puffy cumulus clouds start to develop across the
higher terrain of Southwestern Montana. A few of these may
eventually grow into some virga showers or even dry thunderstorms
this afternoon, potentially producing lightning strikes and gusty
winds.

Wednesday will be another warm day across North Central and
Southwestern Montana, with highs once again reaching the 90s for
most lower elevation locations. With this said, the ridge will
begin to break down during the afternoon, which will result in
gusty winds and increased shower and thunderstorm activity across
the area, mostly across the Plains. A few of the showers and
thunderstorms could produce some strong, gusty winds due to the
very dry air near the surface, and overall synoptic winds and low
RH values could lead to increased fire growth and spread. Please
see the Fire section below for more information.

Beyond tomorrow, a cooler air mass will push into the area,
bringing another chance for some showers on Thursday but then
drier air follows for the weekend. Temperatures will rise a bit
over the weekend, but another cold front will push through the
area on Monday, keeping the mercury from getting quite as high
next week.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Overall forecast confidence remains high through the next few
days, with shower and thunderstorm activity on Wednesday being the
biggest impactful question mark. Most mesoscale models show at
least some shower and thunderstorm development during the
afternoon, though there remains some uncertainty to the coverage
and organization of the storms. Regardless of the organization of
the storms, even a weak shower will be capable of producing gusty
outflows due to the dry air mass in place. Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION...
09/00Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail across the CWA through the period. The
exception will be a few isolated thunderstorms tonight over
Southwest MT. The main impact from any storms will be lightning
and gusty winds. On Wednesday, expect the thunderstorms to become
more widespread over Southwest and North Central MT by late
afternoon. I held off on putting TS at many terminals, as most of
the storms are not expected to begin until about 23z, thus it is
just a low probability that a storm affects a terminal in the last
hour of the TAF. However, know that there will be storms around,
especially after 21z Wed, with the coverage area increasing by 00z
Thu. Brusda

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot, dry, and windy conditions are expected on Wednesday as an
upper level ridge breaks down across the area. While later in the
year this would necessitate a fire weather statement, current
fuel moisture and ERC values remain relatively low across the
area, which will help reduce the overall fire danger tomorrow.
Additionally, a few gusty showers and thunderstorms will be
possible tomorrow afternoon, which could cause any fires that do
get started to exhibit erratic fire behavior around any showers or
thunderstorms. Ludwig/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  96  58  78 /   0  20  20  30
CTB  58  88  53  65 /   0   0  20  60
HLN  60  95  58  82 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  55  96  52  84 /  20  20  20  10
WYS  48  83  50  77 /  20  20  20  20
DLN  52  90  49  81 /  20  20  20  10
HVR  61  98  57  77 /  10  20  20  30
LWT  59  92  54  76 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT Wednesday for Cascade County below
5000ft-Hill County-Northern Blaine County-Western and Central
Chouteau County.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls