748
FXUS65 KTFX 060247
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
847 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024


.SYNOPSIS...
Winds decrease early this evening as high pressure builds across
the northern Rockies and Montana. Afternoon temperatures warm
back to above seasonal averages on Sunday with mild and dry
conditions prevailing through at least the first half of next
week.

&&

.UPDATE...

Ridging aloft will bring lighter winds and seasonably cool
temperatures tonight. Ongoing regional wildfires to our southwest
will bring more hazy skies and some minor visibility reductions
to Southwest and portions of Central MT later tonight into Sunday.
Otherwise, no significant weather is expected. - RCG

&&

.AVIATION...
06/00Z TAF Period

Winds decrease this evening with the loss of diurnal heating and
upper level ridging moving in for the overnight hours. A weak
shortwave brings more westerly breezes to the Rocky Mountain Front
and the plains on Sunday, but winds gusts will mostly remain under
25 kts. VFR conditions are generally expected for the duration of
the TAF period; however, wildfire smoke may bring a period of MVFR
visibility to the southwest terminals late tonight into early
Sunday. - RCG

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 150 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024/

Key Point: Mild afternoon temperatures and dry conditions persist
through much of the week ahead

Northwest flow aloft remains somewhat elevated across the area
through early this evening in the wake the strong upper level wave
the moved across the area last night but broad upper level ridging
is building across the Northern Rockies and MT tonight and will
persist across the area into early next week.

Winds should diminish quickly this evening with the loss of surface
heating and relatively weak surface pressure gradient across the
area and skies will be mainly clear tonight with exception of
some high clouds moving across the upper ridge and some areas of
smoke and haze across southwest MT. Temperatures warm back above
seasonal averages Sunday with relatively mild temperatures and dry
conditions persisting through much of the week ahead. Afternoon
maximum temperatures at many lower elevation locations are
expected to reach the 70s again Sunday and Monday and potentially
as warm as around 80 by Tuesday and Wednesday, which is about 10-15
degrees above seasonal averages for early October.

Longer range model ensembles indicate the broader upper level ridge
at least temporarily shifting east later next week with some upper
troughing moving towards the west coast. Cluster analysis shows
there is still a wide envelope of solutions regarding the depth
and eastern extent of the trough with about 2/3 of model
ensembles bringing a relatively weak trough inland, which would
result in a trend back toward seasonal temperatures and chance for
showers by next Fri/Sat, while the other 1/3 keep general upper
level ridging and mild/dry conditions in place. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  76  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  32  71  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  38  76  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  35  73  38  77 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  25  65  26  68 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  33  73  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  35  71  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  37  72  43  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls