789
FXUS65 KTFX 011009
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
409 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Expect unsettled weather to continue through midweek this week as
broad upper level troughing remains in place, bringing daily
chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the area. A
significant warm up is possible later this week as upper level
ridging builds across the Western United States.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Points:

-Afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue each day through
Wednesday

-Near to below average temperatures expected to continue through
Independence Day

-Temperatures likely warm for the end of the week, though
uncertainty remains

Short term (through Independence Day)... Broad upper level
troughing will be present over the Northern Rockies through
Independence Day, keeping us generally cool and unsettled with
daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. For today,
expect rain showers to be rather widespread across North Central
and Southwestern Montana as the axis of the first in a series of
troughs pushes through the area. Most of theses showers and
thunderstorms will bring nothing more than some brief rainfall,
though some small hail cant be ruled out with a few of the
strongest storms. With this trough overhead, temperatures at lower
elevations will generally be within 5 degrees of where they were
on Sunday, though higher elevations will generally be noticeably
cooler thanks to cooler air in the mid levels of the atmosphere
associated with the through axis moving through the area.

Even with this first trough axis clearing the area Monday
evening, a second weak shortwave will move across Southern Alberta
on Tuesday, helping to kick off a few scattered showers, though
these should generally be confined to the Plains on Tuesday.
Again, these showers and thunderstorms should generally only have
some brief rainfall, though some small hail will again be
possible. Showers and storms will become more widespread on
Wednesday as a more substantial upper level trough digs into the
area, providing more atmospheric support for widespread showers
and thunderstorms, though upper level winds will generally result
in these storms remaining weak and disorganized. Independence day
will see showers gradually end as this system moves east, though
temperatures will generally remain on the cool side with most
lower elevations topping out in the low to mid 70s.

Extended (Friday through next Monday)... A strong upper level
ridge will begin to build across the Southwestern US late this
week, and will begin to expand its influence to the Northwestern
US by the weekend. As this ridge builds, expect temperatures to
gradually rise, with high temperatures expected to push the low to
mid 80s for the lower elevations. There does remain some
uncertainty as to the exact strength, location, and shape of this
ridge, however, which means that there is still a considerable
amount of uncertainty as to how warm we are able to get (or even
if we see much of a warm up for the weekend, as there is about a
30% chance of this warm up being rather insignificant). Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION...
01/06Z TAF Period

Just a few showers will affect mostly Southwest MT overnight,
otherwise expect increasing chances for showers on Monday afternoon
over much of the CWA. Held of thunder at the terminals for now, but
there will be thunder at times over the CWA. Additionally, northwest
winds will increase at the surface for most terminal sites by late
Monday morning. Expect decreasing showers and lowering wind speeds
on Monday evening. Mountains/passes will be obscured at times across
the CWA through the period. Brusda

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  52  75  50 /  40  40  50  20
CTB  70  50  72  48 /  70  40  60  30
HLN  79  54  81  52 /  30  30  30  10
BZN  74  46  75  45 /  60  60  20  10
WYS  66  37  67  37 /  90 100  20  10
DLN  71  43  75  43 /  60  50   0  10
HVR  75  53  76  51 /  50  30  80  60
LWT  72  48  71  46 /  30  50  70  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls