794
FXUS65 KTFX 280755
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
155 AM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue today
  across the region.

- Another round of precipitation expected Friday, but more
  concentrated across North-Central MT.

- Drier and hot conditions expected for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:

Monsoonal moisture combined with vorticity maximums aloft will
keep scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms throughout the
region today and Friday. The moisture will slowly lift north
throughout the next 48 hours, which will help lift precipitation
further north. Meaning, North-Central MT is now getting in the
action with rain today. Convective thunderstorm chances are slight
higher today which will keep isolated heavy rainfall with the
strongest storms. Though, overall thunderstorm coverage remains
isolated. Friday`s chances look to remain mostly north of the
I-90 corridor. Persistent clouds cover will help keep
temperatures cooler Thursday and Friday.

For the weekend, this plume of moisture will exit to the east
throughout Saturday. This will keep a few isolated showers
Saturday. This will keep conditions drier and hotter for Sunday
and Monday. Heading into next week, southwest flow aloft moves
back in. This will bring an increase of moisture again, though
not as much as this week`s. A series of disturbances will keep
low end chances for precipitation throughout next week.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Moisture content remains high through Friday with PWATS near or
above 0.8". Although today will be slightly more convective, the
threat for heavy rainfall still remains isolated. The best chances
will remain north of the I-90 corridor. So far, the low chances
for flash flooding at burn scar areas will hold off the issuance
of another flash flood watch for now. Though, the one area to
watch will be the Horse Gulch burn scar. Generally, the
probabilityof 1" of rain tomorrow is between 10-30% chance if an
area gets a heavy burst of rain. Heading towards the Hi-line, the
risk for rainfall decreases Thursday, with Friday being the
better day for rain up there. -Wilson

&&

.AVIATION...
28/06Z TAF Period

Expect scattered showers to affect the Central and Southern
portions of the CWA through much of the period with MVFR
conditions at times. Some of the rainfall could be near moderate
intensity at times. Overall, mountains/passes will be obscured
through the period over Central/Southwest MT.

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

All flood statements for our area have ended. There is a small
chance for excessive rainfall over parts of the CWA over the next
few days, but not enough to warrant a statement at this time.
Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  56  74  53 /  50  60  50  20
CTB  74  55  70  49 /  30  30  30  10
HLN  72  55  76  53 /  80  60  60  30
BZN  71  50  76  48 /  90  60  40  30
WYS  62  38  70  36 /  90  70  40  20
DLN  69  46  75  46 /  80  40  20  10
HVR  81  59  75  54 /  10  40  30  20
LWT  76  54  68  50 /  60  70  70  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls