955
FXUS65 KTFX 300546
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1146 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024

...Aviation Section Updated...

.SYNOPSIS...
A Pacific cold front will continue to move from west to east
through Central MT this evening. Cooler air will move in behind
the cold front, with gusty winds diminishing by Monday morning.
Afternoon highs on Monday will be about 25 degrees cooler than
today. Temperatures were back up a bit for a few days starting on
Tuesday. Overall, little or no precipitation is expected through
the entire work week.

&&

.UPDATE...

Some adjustments were made to the winds based on updated model
guidance but otherwise no major changes to the going forecast.
Overall, the main wind event for the Rocky Mountain Front is
waning but some high winds are still possible through midnight so
the warning will remain in place for now. On the other hand, the
wind event is now starting to ramp up for our eastern zones and
gusty winds are still on track to persist into the early morning
hours so no modifications were needed for that portion of the high
wind warning. -thor

&&

.AVIATION...
30/06Z TAF Period

VFR conditions prevail this TAF period. The initial concern will be
for gusty winds across northern and eastern portions of the region
through much of the remainder of the night. A boundary dropping
south from Canada will result in a wind shift to a more northerly to
northwesterly direction for KCTB and KHVR, with limited confidence
in this shift occurring at KGTF and KLWT. Otherwise looking ahead to
daylight hours Monday, VFR conditions continue to prevail, with
breezy northwesterly winds persisting at KHVR and KLWT through the
day, while winds are lighter elsewhere. -AM

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024/
Tonight through Monday...A Pacific cold front continues to move
from west to east across the CWA this afternoon. The front is near
the I-15 corridor from Shelby to Great Falls as of 2 PM. Winds are
increasing behind the front, with a gust to 55 mph at Cut Bank and
57 mph near East Glacier Park recently. Overall, the peak of the
strong winds will be from about 4 PM to 10 PM over the Rocky
Mountain Front, from about 8 PM to 1 AM across Fergus and southern
Blaine counties, while a final push of stronger winds will affect
Hill and northern Blaine counties from about 2 AM to 6 AM Monday.
Thus the current high wind highlights will remain, with no
changes. A few light rain/snow showers will fall this afternoon in
Glacier Park, otherwise the chance for rain showers along/north of
Highway 2 continues to slowly decrease. Thus pops are generally
less than 20 percent in this area overnight tonight. On Monday,
expect afternoon temperatures to generally be below normal, with
afternoon highs about 25 degrees cooler than today for many
areas.

Tuesday through Sunday...Overall expect quick moving upper level
disturbances to move from west to east across the CWA later this
week and into the weekend. However, little to no precipitation
will accompany these disturbances. Any areas that do receive
rain/snow will likely receive less than 0.05 inches of liquid.
Snow levels will lower to around 5000 feet tonight, but then rise
back up to around 10,000 feet by Tuesday afternoon. Do expect
overnight temperatures to be near/below freezing on most days,
with afternoon temperatures mostly in the 60s and 70s later this
week.

Another period of windy conditions is possible Tuesday afternoon
into Tuesday night, but overall wind speeds should remain below
warning criteria (less than 20 percent chance of high wind
criteria), thus no highlights are planned for at this time.
Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  36  59  35  72 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  33  57  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  37  60  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  32  57  30  74 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  24  55  22  64 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  31  57  30  74 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  38  59  34  72 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  35  54  33  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

High Wind Warning until 6 AM MDT Monday for Bears Paw Mountains
and Southern Blaine-Fergus County below 4500ft-Hill County-
Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Northern Blaine County-Snowy
and Judith Mountains.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls