414
FXUS65 KTFX 041516
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
916 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Lingering snow in Southwest Montana ends this morning.

 - Trending warm and dry for the weekend.

 - Breezy period early to mid next week over the plains.

&&

.UPDATE...

Light snow in Southwestern Montana will end over the course of the
next hour or so. Otherwise for the rest of North-central, Central,
and Southwestern Montana outside of isolated light mountain snow
showers it will be dry today and warmer than yesterday. For the
update, High temperatures today were refreshed with the latest
guidance. Wind and sky grids were adjusted to better reflect
current observations and trends. Pops across Southwestern Montana
were increased for a couple hours this morning to better reflect
current observational trends. The rest of the forecast is on
track. -IG

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 514 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

Upper level troughing ahead of an amplified ridge across the Pacific
NW and vicinity will slowly nudge eastward over the next few days,
helping transition the Northern Rockies to a warmer and drier
period. Before that happens, the last influence from the troughing
is resulting in some light lingering snow across Southwest Montana
this morning. This snow will diminish through the morning, with
little in the way of impacts forecast. Pockets of fog will be
possible this morning where recent precipitation overlaps with clear
skies and calm winds. Otherwise the only concern today is for an
outside opportunity for mountain snow showers  this afternoon.

The region transitions warmer and drier for the weekend as the
ridging remains in control. By early next week, several fast moving
waves will flatten the ridge, resulting in a period of gusty winds
over the plains, with opportunities for mainly mountain showers and
snow showers.

Toward the end of next week, cluster guidance and multi-model
ensemble means still feature a warmer period underneath varying
flavors of upper level ridging. The greatest uncertainty stems from
how quickly any Pacific Northwest troughing approaches the Northern
Rockies toward the weekend. -AM


 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Warm Temperatures early next week:

Probabilistic guidance gives a greater than 95% chance for highs of
60F or more on Monday. Temperatures do cool a bit for Tuesday and
Wednesday, though will still largely be near or a touch above
normal.

Breezy winds next week:

Monday through Wednesday will be on the breezy side for the plains,
with Tuesday and especially Wednesday looking the most gusty. The
chance for a 50 mph gust in Cut Bank is roughly 80% on Wednesday. -AM

&&

.AVIATION...
04/12Z TAF Period

Light snow continues to move southward through Southwest MT early
this morning. Most of the snow should exit Southwest MT by about
14z or so. Some patchy fog could develop behind the precipitation
in the Bozeman/Ennis areas as well. Further north, skies have
generally cleared out over North Central MT. Some patchy fog is
possible if winds become light enough through 15z. Generally dry
air is expected to move into the CWA this afternoon, allowing for
mostly clear skies and quiet conditions. A slight wind shift to
the northwest will occur over North Central MT this afternoon, but
winds will return to more downslope by this evening.
Mountains/passes will be obscured across Central and Southwest MT
through about 15z. Brusda

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  24  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  43  22  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  44  23  57  32 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  40  18  52  25 /  20   0   0   0
WYS  38   5  48  14 /  30   0   0   0
DLN  40  21  53  27 /  20   0   0   0
HVR  44  21  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  38  21  52  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls