989
FXUS65 KTFX 101119
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
519 AM MDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...Updated Aviation Section...


.SYNOPSIS...

After the passage of a cold front overnight, expect temperatures
to be 15-20 degrees cooler today than they were yesterday.
Temperatures will generally warm over the next few days, with
temperatures returning to the mid to upper 70s by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

-Cooler today with temperatures still near to above average

-Warm and dry weather continues through the middle of next week

-Pattern change looking likely later next week

Short Term (Through Saturday)... Early morning radar and surface
observations show a dry cold front has mostly pushed through North
Central and Southwestern Montana, with West Yellowstone being the
last major town to not yet see frontal passage. As we head
through the day today, expect clouds to gradually dissipate from
Northwest to Southwest, with most areas north of I-90 seeing
mostly to partly clear skies by nightfall, enabling for some peaks
at the potential northern lights display overnight tonight.
Seeing as though we are post frontal today, temperatures will
generally be 15-20 degrees cooler than they were yesterday. Friday
and Saturday will be similar to today, with temperatures in the
upper 60s to mid 70s, with Saturday being the cooler day across
the plains thanks to the passage of another weak cold front Friday
night.

Extended (Sunday through next Thursday)... Expect temperatures to
rise again early next week as a strong upper level ridge moves
through the Northwestern United States. Under this upper level
ridge, expect mostly clear skies and generally light winds out of
the south to southwest as temperatures rise back into the mid to
upper 70s. There isnt much else to say about the first half of
the week, as the upper level ridge will keep the weather on the
quiet side. As we head into the second half of the week, however,
model ensembles seem to be in unusually good agreement that a
notable cooldown will arrive around Thursday, potentially with
some areas of precipitation, with highest chances across
Southwestern Montana. Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION...
10/12Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail during this TAF period. There will be
smoke around the KBZN, KEKS, and KHLN terminals during most of this
TAF period with no visibility reductions expected. At the KEKS
terminal there will be low VFR ceilings from now through 10/18Z. At
the KHLN terminal there is a 20% chance for rain between 10/18Z and
10/20Z. At the KLWT terminal there is a 20% chance for rain between
10/22Z and 11/03Z. During this TAF period winds will be mostly light
and variable except at the KWYS and KHVR terminals where they will
gust up to 17kts during the middle of this TAF period. During most
of this TAF period there will be mountain obscuration in
Southwestern Montana due to smoke from wildfires in Idaho. -IG

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  38  71  39 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  61  33  67  32 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  68  40  73  43 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  69  37  71  40 /  10  10   0   0
WYS  66  30  67  29 /   0  10   0   0
DLN  66  37  72  41 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  67  35  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  63  37  67  39 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls