025
FXUS65 KTFX 142345
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
545 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain or snow showers this evening, mostly over North
  Central MT.

- Another round of lower elevation rain and mountain snow
  Wednesday into Wednesday night.

- A slow warming trend through the beginning of the weekend,
  before another weather system moves into the region by early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 309 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:
Scattered showers continue to push northward through the CWA this
afternoon. A few isolated thunderstorms are trying to move into
the West Yellowstone area as well. Overall, precip diminishes this
evening, with the potential for patchy fog later tonight. However,
cloud cover will limit the coverage area.

For Wednesday, another round of showers and mountain snow
develops. Snow levels will be rather high, above 7000 feet in most
areas.

Afternoon temperatures will continue a very slow warming trend
over the next few days, but likely to average a bit below normal
until Sunday. Additionally, the next upper level low from the west
moves into the western portions of the CWA by Sun/Mon...increasing
the chances for precipitation.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
Overall, precipitation is light tonight. For Wed/Thu...the
heaviest snowfall is expected in the mountains around and just
east of Big Sky. Snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches is possible,
mostly above 7000 feet. Since most/all of the snow is expected
above pass level with this event, no advisory will be issued at
this time.

For Sunday, the GFS/EC have different solutions on the timing of
the next weather system. The EC is much quicker, thus cooler
temperatures on Sunday. The GFS is warmer/drier on Sunday, with
the potential for afternoon temperatures above 70 degrees. With
confidence low on either solution at this time, the blend of the
NBM is on track. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
15/00Z TAF Period

MVFR clouds hand around in the early evening. There may be some
breaks in MVFR ceilings tonight before patchy fog/precipitation
reintroduces them early Wednesday morning. Confidence for fog
affecting terminals across North Central MT is not high at the
moment, but guidance suggest terminals will go down to IFR
condtions if it does set up. The next wave of precipitation look
to bring IFR ceilings at times again Wednesday morning. Snow/rain
and snow mix will impact Southwest MT in the morning before
switching to rain in the afternoon. Mountain obscuration persists
due to lower clouds and precipitation. -Wilson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  27  47  35  53 /  10  30  60  50
CTB  22  49  31  58 /   0  10  20  10
HLN  28  50  35  53 /  20  50  60  60
BZN  29  50  33  47 /  50  60  70  80
WYS  28  50  28  44 /  80  90  80  90
DLN  31  48  33  50 /  40  60  60  50
HVR  25  49  35  55 /  10  50  60  50
LWT  27  49  33  45 /  40  60  70  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls