264
FXUS65 KTFX 281818
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1118 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Warm and quiet weather expected through the weekend, which
   could result in localized snowmelt flooding.
 - Minor weather system moves through early next week, bringing a
   chance of widespread light snow.
 - Temperatures trend closer to average next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
/Issued 822 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025/

It will be warm today across North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana. For the update hourly and high temperatures
across the plains of North-central Montana were increased today
to better reflect current observations and trends. Wind speeds
were adjusted to better match current observations and trends. The
rest of the forecast is on track. -IG

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 822 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

Upper level ridging will strengthen over the Northern Rockies
today before persisting into the weekend. With this ridge in
place, expect calm winds, warm temperatures (with some areas
pushing 20 degrees above average), and no precipitation through
Sunday. Beyond Sunday, our upper level ridge will slide eastward
as an upper level trough pushes in from the northwest, which will
allow cooler air to arrive for Monday, along with some light
snowfall across the area. Upper level ridging will return behind
this system, however, bringing near average temperatures,
generally light winds, and just a few mountain snow showers.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Confidence in the forecast is very high through the weekend, with
really no models suggesting anything aside from the
aforementioned upper level ridging pattern through the weekend.
Models do diverge a bit on the timing and strength of the trough
to start the work week on Monday, though interrogating the NBM
probabilities shows only slight (2-3 at lower elevations)
differences in the range of outcomes for snowfall early next week.

For the second half of the week next week, models are a bit split
on the solution, with some models (around 30% of the
distribution) suggesting that we could be in a bit of a cooler and
wetter pattern than the majority indicate, so this will be
something to watch out for as we head into next week. Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION...
28/18Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will predominately prevail through the 2818/0118
TAF period as upper level ridging builds in over the Northern
Rockies. While confidence is not high at this time, latest Hi-Res
Ensemble Forecast Guidance does support a 20-40% chance for MVFR
or lower VIS in the KCTB and KHVR terminal vicinities beyond 03z
Saturday due to fog. Mountains obscuration is not expected over
the next 24 hours. - Moldan

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

The snowmelt continues over the CWA. Much of the lower elevation
snow has melted out across North Central MT. With mild temperatures
the next few days, Southwest MT will begin to see more rapid
snowmelt, especially at lower elevations. Thus areas of Southwest MT
should be prepared for possible flood statements over the next few
days.

The flood advisory continues for North Central MT through Friday
night with the greatest risk for localized flooding along the Hi-
Line and in Fergus County. -IG/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  30  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  53  27  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  49  27  51  26 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  47  23  50  21 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  43   5  46   3 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  48  26  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  52  25  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  50  30  53  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls