092
FXXX10 KWNP 081231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Jan 08 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 08-Jan 10 2025 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 08-Jan 10 2025

             Jan 08       Jan 09       Jan 10
00-03UT       3.67         1.33         1.33
03-06UT       2.33         1.33         1.33
06-09UT       1.67         1.67         1.33
09-12UT       0.67         1.33         1.33
12-15UT       1.67         1.33         1.33
15-18UT       1.67         1.33         1.67
18-21UT       2.00         1.67         1.67
21-00UT       2.33         1.67         1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 08-Jan 10 2025

              Jan 08  Jan 09  Jan 10
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: A slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storming will
persist through 10 Jan as multiple CME producing regions transit and
exit the western limb.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jan 07 2025 2305 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 08-Jan 10 2025

              Jan 08        Jan 09        Jan 10
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for isolated R3 (Strong) or greater events through 10 Jan.
This is based on the magnetic complexity and persistent activity of
Region 3947.