415
FXXX10 KWNP 091231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Nov 09 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 09-Nov 11 2024 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 09-Nov 11 2024

             Nov 09       Nov 10       Nov 11
00-03UT       4.00         3.67         2.67
03-06UT       4.00         4.00         3.00
06-09UT       3.67         4.33         2.67
09-12UT       5.00 (G1)    4.00         2.33
12-15UT       3.67         3.00         2.33
15-18UT       3.33         2.67         2.00
18-21UT       4.67 (G1)    2.33         2.67
21-00UT       3.33         2.67         3.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on 09 Nov.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to decline to below G1 levels for 10-11
Nov.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 09-Nov 11 2024

              Nov 09  Nov 10  Nov 11
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms over 09-11 Nov.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 09-Nov 11 2024

              Nov 09        Nov 10        Nov 11
R1-R2           70%           70%           70%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           20%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
chance for R3 (Strong), over 09-11 Nov due to the flare potential from
multiple complex regions on the visible disk.