206
FXXX10 KWNP 050031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Dec 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 05-Dec 07 2024 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 05-Dec 07 2024

             Dec 05       Dec 06       Dec 07
00-03UT       1.67         1.00         2.67
03-06UT       1.33         1.67         2.00
06-09UT       1.33         2.00         1.67
09-12UT       1.33         1.00         3.00
12-15UT       1.33         2.33         2.00
15-18UT       1.33         3.00         2.33
18-21UT       1.67         2.33         1.67
21-00UT       1.67         2.67         1.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 05-Dec 07 2024

              Dec 05  Dec 06  Dec 07
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Dec 04 2024 1000 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 05-Dec 07 2024

              Dec 05        Dec 06        Dec 07
R1-R2           30%           30%           30%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
through 07 Dec.