Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
857
FXXX10 KWNP 100031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Jan 10 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 10-Jan 12 2025 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 10-Jan 12 2025
Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12
00-03UT 1.33 2.33 1.67
03-06UT 1.33 0.67 2.67
06-09UT 1.33 1.33 1.33
09-12UT 1.33 2.00 1.33
12-15UT 1.33 1.67 2.67
15-18UT 1.67 2.00 3.00
18-21UT 1.67 3.33 3.67
21-00UT 1.67 2.67 1.67
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 10-Jan 12 2025
Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12
S1 or greater 10% 5% 5%
Rationale: A slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storming will
persist through 10 Jan as multiple CME producing regions transit and
exit the western limb.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 10-Jan 12 2025
Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12
R1-R2 55% 55% 55%
R3 or greater 15% 10% 5%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely through 12
Jan, with a slight chance for isolated R3 (Strong) or greater events
through 11 Jan. This is based on the magnetic complexity and persistent
activity of Region 3947.