000
FXXX10 KWNP 011231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Oct 01 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 01-Oct 03 2024 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 01-Oct 03 2024

             Oct 01       Oct 02       Oct 03
00-03UT       2.33         1.67         1.67
03-06UT       2.33         1.33         1.33
06-09UT       1.67         1.33         1.33
09-12UT       1.00         1.33         1.67
12-15UT       3.00         1.33         1.67
15-18UT       2.00         1.33         1.33
18-21UT       1.33         1.67         1.33
21-00UT       1.33         1.67         1.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 01-Oct 03 2024

              Oct 01  Oct 02  Oct 03
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Sep 30 2024 2359 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 01-Oct 03 2024

              Oct 01        Oct 02        Oct 03
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance or R3 or greater events, over 01-03 Oct.