879
FXXX10 KWNP 300031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Sep 30 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 30-Oct 02 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 30-Oct 02 2024

             Sep 30       Oct 01       Oct 02
00-03UT       3.00         1.33         1.67
03-06UT       2.00         1.33         1.33
06-09UT       4.00         1.33         1.33
09-12UT       2.00         1.67         1.33
12-15UT       2.67         1.67         1.33
15-18UT       1.00         1.67         1.33
18-21UT       1.00         1.33         1.67
21-00UT       1.00         1.33         1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 30-Oct 02 2024

              Sep 30  Oct 01  Oct 02
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Sep 29 2024 1441 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 30-Oct 02 2024

              Sep 30        Oct 01        Oct 02
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance or R3 or greater events, over 30 Sep-02 Oct.