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FXXX10 KWNP 140031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Oct 14 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 14-Oct 16 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 14-Oct 16 2025

             Oct 14       Oct 15       Oct 16
00-03UT       3.67         2.67         3.67
03-06UT       3.00         2.33         3.33
06-09UT       2.67         2.33         3.00
09-12UT       2.67         2.00         2.67
12-15UT       2.00         2.00         2.67
15-18UT       2.33         2.00         3.33
18-21UT       2.33         3.00         4.67 (G1)
21-00UT       2.67         4.00         4.67 (G1)

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 16 Oct due to
the combined effects of multiple CMEs from 11-13 Oct.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 14-Oct 16 2025

              Oct 14  Oct 15  Oct 16
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton
event above the S1 (Minor) levels through 16 Oct.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Oct 13 2025 0919 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 14-Oct 16 2025

              Oct 14        Oct 15        Oct 16
R1-R2           50%           50%           50%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: A high chance for a few R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts, with a slight chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, will
persist through 16 Oct primarily due to the flare potential presented by
AR4246.