589
FXXX10 KWNP 120031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Oct 12 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 12-Oct 14 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 12-Oct 14 2026

             Oct 12       Oct 13       Oct 14
00-03UT       3.00         3.00         4.00
03-06UT       3.33         3.33         4.67 (G1)
06-09UT       2.67         2.67         5.00 (G1)
09-12UT       2.33         2.33         4.33
12-15UT       2.33         2.33         4.00
15-18UT       2.67         2.67         3.67
18-21UT       3.67         3.67         3.33
21-00UT       4.00         4.00         2.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) storms are expected on 14 Oct, due to the
influence of a geoeffective negative polarity coronal hole high speed
stream.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 12-Oct 14 2026

              Oct 12  Oct 13  Oct 14
S1 or greater   10%      5%      5%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms on 12 Oct, primarily due to the flaring potential
of Region 4549.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 12-Oct 14 2026

              Oct 12        Oct 13        Oct 14
R1-R2           65%           55%           45%
R3 or greater   15%           10%            5%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for R3 (Strong) events, through 13 Oct. This decays to a
chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 14 Oct.