Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
563 FXXX10 KWNP 100031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Oct 10 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 10-Oct 12 2024 is 8.33 (NOAA Scale G4). NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 10-Oct 12 2024 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct 12 00-03UT 1.67 8.33 (G4) 5.33 (G1) 03-06UT 1.33 8.00 (G4) 5.00 (G1) 06-09UT 1.33 7.00 (G3) 4.67 (G1) 09-12UT 1.33 6.67 (G3) 4.33 12-15UT 5.00 (G1) 6.33 (G2) 4.33 15-18UT 7.33 (G3) 6.33 (G2) 5.33 (G1) 18-21UT 7.67 (G4) 6.00 (G2) 4.67 (G1) 21-00UT 8.33 (G4) 5.33 (G1) 4.33 Rationale: G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm conditions were already anticipated for 11 Oct due to possible enhancements associated with the filament eruption from 08 Oct. Analysis of the CME associated with the X1.8 flare suggests further enhancement 10 Oct into 11 Oct, reaching G4 (Severe) levels is likely with G5 (Extreme) levels possible. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 10-Oct 12 2024 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct 12 S1 or greater 80% 50% 30% Rationale: S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storm levels are expected to continue through 10 Oct and begin a slow recovery through the rest of the period. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Oct 09 2024 0156 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 10-Oct 12 2024 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct 12 R1-R2 75% 75% 70% R3 or greater 40% 40% 25% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for isolated R3 (Strong or greater) radio blackout events through 12 Oct.