431
FXXX10 KWNP 021236
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Oct 02 1235 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 02-Oct 04 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 02-Oct 04 2026

             Oct 02       Oct 03       Oct 04
00-03UT       1.00         3.67         3.67
03-06UT       1.00         3.00         3.67
06-09UT       0.33         2.67         2.67
09-12UT       0.67         1.67         2.67
12-15UT       4.33         1.67         2.67
15-18UT       3.67         2.67         3.67
18-21UT       4.67 (G1)    3.67         4.67 (G1)
21-00UT       4.67 (G1)    3.67         3.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 02 Oct (due to
the anticipated glancing influences of the 28 Sep CME) and 04 Oct (as
the CME effects wanes and a +CH/HSS becomes geoeffective).

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 02-Oct 04 2026

              Oct 02  Oct 03  Oct 04
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 02-Oct 04 2026

              Oct 02        Oct 03        Oct 04
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor) radio blackouts on
02-04 Oct.