948
FXXX10 KWNP 091231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Mar 09 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 09-Mar 11 2025 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 09-Mar 11 2025

             Mar 09       Mar 10       Mar 11
00-03UT       4.67 (G1)    4.00         3.67
03-06UT       5.67 (G2)    5.00 (G1)    3.67
06-09UT       4.00         4.00         3.33
09-12UT       5.67 (G2)    3.33         3.33
12-15UT       4.67 (G1)    3.00         3.33
15-18UT       5.67 (G2)    3.00         3.33
18-21UT       3.67         3.67         3.67
21-00UT       3.67         4.00         3.33

Rationale: G2 (Moderate) levels are expected through mid to late day 09
Mar. G1 (Minor) conditions are then likely, with a chance for isolated
G2 (Moderate) levels, through 10 Mar as CH HSS effects continue.
Unsettled to active levels are expected to linger through 11 Mar as CH
HSS begin to fade.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 09-Mar 11 2025

              Mar 09  Mar 10  Mar 11
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 09-Mar 11 2025

              Mar 09        Mar 10        Mar 11
R1-R2           30%           30%           30%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts will
persist through 11 Mar mainly due to the flare potential of Region 4012.