Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
247
FXXX10 KWNP 070031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Nov 07 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 07-Nov 09 2024 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 07-Nov 09 2024
Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09
00-03UT 5.00 (G1) 4.00 3.67
03-06UT 4.33 2.67 3.00
06-09UT 4.00 3.33 3.00
09-12UT 3.33 3.67 3.00
12-15UT 4.33 3.00 3.33
15-18UT 2.67 3.33 3.33
18-21UT 3.00 2.00 3.67
21-00UT 3.67 2.33 4.33
Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are likely on 07 Nov
due to possible CME effects.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 07-Nov 09 2024
Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09
S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storm on 07-09 Nov.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Nov 06 2024 1340 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 07-Nov 09 2024
Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09
R1-R2 80% 80% 80%
R3 or greater 35% 35% 35%
Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with continued
M-Class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flaring and a chance for X-Class
(R3-Strong) levels 07-09 Nov. Solar flare probabilities are being driven
by Regions 3883 and 3886 due to their magnetic complexities.