957
FXXX10 KWNP 120031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Oct 12 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 12-Oct 14 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 12-Oct 14 2025

             Oct 12       Oct 13       Oct 14
00-03UT       3.00         3.67         2.67
03-06UT       3.00         3.00         2.00
06-09UT       3.67         3.00         2.33
09-12UT       4.67 (G1)    4.67 (G1)    2.33
12-15UT       3.00         3.00         1.67
15-18UT       3.67         2.00         1.67
18-21UT       5.00 (G1)    2.67         1.67
21-00UT       3.67         3.67         2.67

Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms likely on 12-13 Oct
due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 12-Oct 14 2025

              Oct 12  Oct 13  Oct 14
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 12-Oct 14 2025

              Oct 12        Oct 13        Oct 14
R1-R2           20%           20%           20%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts over 12-14 Oct.