392
FXXX10 KWNP 281231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Feb 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 28-Mar 02 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 28-Mar 02 2025

             Feb 28       Mar 01       Mar 02
00-03UT       5.00 (G1)    3.67         2.67
03-06UT       4.00         2.67         2.00
06-09UT       4.33         2.67         2.33
09-12UT       3.67         2.67         2.33
12-15UT       4.67 (G1)    2.67         2.33
15-18UT       3.00         3.00         2.33
18-21UT       2.67         2.00         2.33
21-00UT       2.67         2.00         2.67

Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on 28
Feb due to positive polarity CH HSS influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 28-Mar 02 2025

              Feb 28  Mar 01  Mar 02
S1 or greater   10%     10%      5%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms over 28 Feb-01 Mar.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 28-Mar 02 2025

              Feb 28        Mar 01        Mar 02
R1-R2           55%           55%           30%
R3 or greater   10%           10%            5%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, on 28 Feb-01 Mar. There
is a chance for R1-R2 events on 02 Mar.