594
FXXX10 KWNP 061231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Oct 06 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 06-Oct 08 2024 is 6.67 (NOAA Scale
G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 06-Oct 08 2024

             Oct 06       Oct 07       Oct 08
00-03UT       1.67         4.00         3.33
03-06UT       1.00         3.00         3.67
06-09UT       2.33         3.33         4.00
09-12UT       1.67         4.67 (G1)    3.00
12-15UT       4.00         5.00 (G1)    2.00
15-18UT       4.00         3.33         2.33
18-21UT       4.67 (G1)    4.00         2.67
21-00UT       6.67 (G3)    4.33         2.67

Rationale: G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming is likely on 06 Oct due to
the anticipated CME effects. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely
on 07 Oct with any glancing influence from the CME that left the Sun
early on 04 Oct coupled with positive polarity CH HSS onset.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 06-Oct 08 2024

              Oct 06  Oct 07  Oct 08
S1 or greater   30%     30%     25%

Rationale: There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux
reaching the S1 (Minor) threshold on 06-08 Oct due to the enhanced flare
potential from multiple regions.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Oct 05 2024 2320 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 06-Oct 08 2024

              Oct 06        Oct 07        Oct 08
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   30%           30%           25%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with
a chance for isolated R3 (Strong or greater) radio blackouts on 06-08
Oct as multiple active regions continue to maintain enhanced magnetic
complexities.