969
FXXX10 KWNP 031231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Jul 03 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 03-Jul 05 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 03-Jul 05 2025

             Jul 03       Jul 04       Jul 05
00-03UT       2.67         2.67         3.00
03-06UT       3.00         4.00         2.67
06-09UT       3.00         3.00         2.33
09-12UT       2.67         2.67         2.00
12-15UT       2.33         1.67         2.33
15-18UT       2.67         1.67         2.33
18-21UT       3.00         2.00         2.33
21-00UT       4.67 (G1)    2.67         2.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 03 Jul due
to the arrival of the 28 Jun CME.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 03-Jul 05 2025

              Jul 03  Jul 04  Jul 05
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 03-Jul 05 2025

              Jul 03        Jul 04        Jul 05
R1-R2           15%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts due to isolated M-class flare activity through 05 July.