700
FNUS72 KTBW 201212
FWSTBW

Spot Forecast for HC Rx NE Region...HC ELM
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
812 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on August 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (813) 645-2323 if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Some drier air along with northwesterly flow will limit the overall
shower and thunderstorm activity today. Relative humidity values will
remain well above critical thresholds and winds should remain less
than 15 mph. For the remainder of the week through the weekend a west
to southwest flow sets up with moisture return along with higher
shower and thunderstorm chances. There are no significant fire
weather concerns at this time.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Scattered showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
                    Isolated showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 9 to 10 mph.
Dispersion index....16 increasing to 52.
LVORI...............3.

TIME (EDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........24     27     33     35     32
Weather cov.....                     SCTTRD ISOLTD
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                     SCTTRD ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).0      10     10     30     20
Temp............81     87     91     92     91
RH..............87     71     60     55     57
20 ft wind......N 6    N 7    NW 7   NW 8   N 8
20 ft wind gust.10     12     14     14     13
Mix hgt (ft)....1300   3300   4200   4700   4700
Transport wind..N 9    N 9    N 10   NW 9   NW 9
Dispersion idx..16     38     48     54     50
LVORI...........5      2      1      1      1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 77.
Max humidity........95 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 8 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 8 mph shifting to the west
                    around 6 mph early in the morning.
Dispersion index....36 decreasing to 2.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........32     33     23     17     15     18
Weather cov.....ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).20     10     10     10     10     10
Temp............89     84     81     79     78     77
RH..............62     73     81     86     90     91
20 ft wind......NW 8   NW 6   W 3    W 2    SW 2   SW 2
20 ft wind gust.13     9      7      6      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....3500   500    500    400    400    400
Transport wind..NW 8   NW 7   NW 6   NW 5   W 5    W 6
Dispersion idx..36     3      0      2      2      2
LVORI...........1      3      6      6      6      6

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Scattered showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 9 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 12 mph.
Dispersion index....3 increasing to 15 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 29 late in the morning increasing
                    to 46 late in the morning increasing to 58
                    decreasing to 50 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........20     27     30     37     40     38
Weather cov.....       SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........       SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).10     30     30     40     50     50
Temp............77     78     86     89     90     91
RH..............93     92     75     65     63     62
20 ft wind......W 2    W 2    W 5    W 7    W 8    W 9
20 ft wind gust.6      5      8      12     14     15
Mix hgt (ft)....400    300    3000   4300   4500   4200
Transport wind..W 5    W 5    W 8    W 10   W 12   W 10
Dispersion idx..1      5      29     50     58     57
LVORI...........7      6      3      1      1      1

$$
Forecaster...Pearce
Requested by...HC ELM
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2520297.0/TBW
.DELDT 08/20/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL raymonds@hcfl.gov