533
FXUS62 KTBW 081230
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
730 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

Some areas of stratocumulus developed overnight which brought
temperatures back up a few degrees during the late night
hours from around southern parts of the Nature Coast south across
much of the central Florida peninsula. These lower clouds will
dissipate this morning with some high clouds persisting through
the day. Temperatures will recover back to the mid 50s to mid 60s,
but this is still 10 to 15 degrees below normal. For tonight it
looks as cold, if not colder in the areas that saw the lower
clouds this morning, as the high clouds will thin out with
northerly flow persisting. Current forecast looks on track with
no changes needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

Areas of VFR ceilings between 3100 and 3500 feet early this
morning will gradually dissipate by midday with the VFR and rain-
free conditions persisting. North winds at 6 to 10 knots will
shift to northwest this afternoon and then back to north during
tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

The cold front has pushed well south of Florida with a cold air mass
continuing to reside over Florida through Thursday. Strong high
pressure builds in over the central U.S. and will continue to
produce northerly winds and will advect cold air over Florida for
the next couple of days. This has prompted the issuance of a Freeze
Warning and Frost Advisory for parts of the Nature Coast through 9
am this morning. Daytime highs on Wednesday and Thursday will remain
well below average topping out only in the 50`s and 60`s. We will
likely have another setup of sub-freezing temperatures on Thursday
morning along the Nature Coast, which has prompted the issuance of a
Freeze Watch, with possible Cold Weather and Frost Advisories needed
for the early morning hours on Thursday.

The high will move southeastward over the southeast U.S. by Thursday
and eventually off into the western Atlantic by Friday morning. This
will bring a shift in winds to the east and southeast, producing a
brief period of warmer temps closer to average on Friday and Friday
night. Models continue to develop the next weather system over the
northern gulf coast states by Friday morning and moves it east-
northeastward through the southeast U.S. through Saturday evening.
This will bring our next round of showers and storms Friday evening
through Saturday afternoon. The front will exit south and east of
Florida by Saturday evening allowing for weak high pressure to build
in over the area producing clear and cooler conditions once again
over the weekend. Daytime highs starting Sunday and continuing into
next week will top out in the upper 50`s to low 70`s with overnight
lows in the mid 30`s to low 50`s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 239 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

High pressure over the central U.S. will move southeastward toward
the southeast U.S. over the next couple of days. This will produce
north-northeast winds around 10-15 knots and rain-free conditions
for the next couple of days. The next weather system will move
through the eastern gulf waters late Friday into Saturday afternoon
bringing the next round of showers and storms to the area.
Increasing southerly winds to Exercise Caution will also be possible
ahead of and in the vicinity of the front along with building seas
for Friday evening through Saturday afternoon. Clearing conditions,
decreasing winds and abating seas expected by Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 239 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

High pressure builds in across the area and will keep a cold and dry
air mass over the area, as well as a northerly wind flow over the
coming days with minimum RH values reaching near or below critical
levels at times through Thursday. While wind speeds will generally
remain less than 10 mph and be below red flag criteria, the fire
danger will remain elevated over the next couple of days due to the
low humidity values. Humidity levels will then start to increase by
the end of the week as southerly wind flow develops on Friday ahead
of a cold front and brings deeper moisture into the area with rain
chances late Friday into Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  60  39  59  41 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  65  41  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  61  37  58  38 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  62  42  61  41 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  60  31  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  57  44  57  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal Citrus-
     Coastal Hernando-Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-Sumter.

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal Levy-
     Inland Citrus-Inland Levy.

     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for
     Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Pearce