648
FXUS62 KTBW 081750
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
150 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

This looks to be the last day of southwesterly flow as the ridge
will be shifting north and looks to remain overhead through the
weekend. For us this means we will see seabreeze thunderstorms
activity starting in the afternoon inland and then spreading slowly
towards the west coast in the last afternoon and evening hours. The
main concern with this regime will be slow movement of the storms.
This could lead to some localized flooding as storms form and sit
over one area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Southwesterly flow and more stable air will keep thunderstorm
chances limited today. The best chance to see storms at terminals
will be in southwest Florida. Winds generally be light staying
below 10 knots.
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 149 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Ridge will be shifting overhead tonight. This will keep
our winds around 5 knots through Saturday with variable directions.
Out best chance for thunderstorm activity will be in the evening
hours as storms slowly push off the coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 149 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Summertime convection and humidity will keep fire danger at a
minimum.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  79  93  78 /  20  10  50  20
FMY  95  77  95  76 /  50  20  70  30
GIF  94  77  94  76 /  50  20  70  20
SRQ  92  77  93  75 /  20  20  40  30
BKV  92  74  92  73 /  30  10  60  20
SPG  89  79  90  78 /  20  20  40  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce