657
FXUS62 KTBW 300702
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
302 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Overall quiet conditions as the work week begins. Upper level
ridging over the SW Atlantic. Rain chances remain low today,
except for areas north of I4 and areas in SWFL, where some
isolated shower or storms could be possible. Rain chances steadily
increase throughout the week as deeper moisture moves over the
area. A surface high pressure will build into the easter seabord
transitioning the flow to more of a breezy easterly component as
the pressure gradient tightens up. Temperatures today and
tomorrow will likely be the highest for the week in the low to mid
90s. As clouds and rain coverage increase through the week,
temperatures will hang around the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Another tropical disturbance is expected to develop somewhere in
the Western Caribbean by mid week then moving into the Gulf of
Mexico by the end of the week. Currently the NHC has this system
marked with a medium (50%) chance of development in the next 7
days. Forecast confidence for this system still remains low at
this time with model guidance showing many different
possibilities. At this time, we will continue to monitor the
system closely and provide frequent updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 255 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Though a bit drier today,
a few isolated shower can not be ruled out. Best chance for any
development will be north of I4, and possibly a few in SWFL.
Confidence was low so kept out of the TAF at this time. Light and
variable winds overnight turn to more WSW during the afternoon
before once again becoming light and variable overnight. By
midweek the flow will shift to a more easterly direction and
increase.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Light and variable flow has helped limit any marine hazards moving
into the week. Winds will shift more WSW to Easterly as the week
goes on and will gradually increase each day. All eyes on another
tropical system that could work its way into the Gulf of Mexico by
end of the week, which will once again disrupt conditions in the
Gulf. Currently, forecast confidence on this system is low, but will
continue to be monitored.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

RH values remain summertime levels, keeping any fire weather
concerns at bay.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  77  90  75 /  10  20  60  40
FMY  94  77  93  76 /  30  20  40  30
GIF  95  77  93  75 /  20  10  60  30
SRQ  92  77  91  75 /  10  30  50  40
BKV  92  74  91  72 /  20  10  60  40
SPG  91  80  90  79 /  10  30  60  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...Close