485
FXUS62 KTBW 301342
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
942 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

It is a fairly quiet start to the day across West Central and
Southwest Florida. Mid-level altocumulus clouds continue to linger
across the southern third of the peninsula as a few thunderstorms
continue off the FL West Coast 20 to 60 NM from shore. Much like
yesterday, this activity is likely to be a sign of things to come
over land this afternoon.

The atmosphere is primed for convection. The 12Z sounding shows that
ample moisture is sufficient (PWAT of 2.07 inches), instability is
sufficient (MLCAPE OF 1400 J/KG), and light winds favor sea breeze
development this afternoon. When compared to yesterday, today more
closely reflects regime 2, which is a slight change from yesterday,
but should yield a similar outcome. Scattered to numerous afternoon
and evening thunderstorms are expected, consolidating along the
coast in the evening hours. The light winds, but ample instability
suggest robust thunderstorms capable of producing very heavy
rainfall in a short amount of time. Gusty winds and frequent
lightning are also possible. However, there is no organized severe
threat, and the potential for hail is quite limited with 500mb temps
around -6C.

A few adjustments have been made to POPs to reflect expectations,
but the forecast largely remains on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 748 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Afternoon convection is expected once again today as a light ESE
background flow prevails. This should allow for sea breeze
development this afternoon along the coast, with early storms
forming on this boundary. As the east coast sea breeze moves
westward during the afternoon, additional collisions are favored,
with more widespread activity developing. KPIE is still likely to
be the first terminal with any impacts today, but all terminals
will see convection developing shortly thereafter in the vicinity.
SWFL terminals are likely to see activity a little earlier today
compared to yesterday given this setup as well. While afternoon
convection will continue through the week ahead, tomorrow looks
like it may be the driest day of the week, with slightly drier air
moving in for the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

 A few showers and storms already developing along the sea breeze
near the nature coast should remain just off the coast. This
afternoon however, more showers and storms will develop along sea
breeze and outflow boundaries. Some of these may drift over or
near the coastal waters. Frequent lightning and strong wind gusts
could be possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

No major fire weather concerns through the period as ample moisture
remains. Showers and storms are expected this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  77  92  78 /  70  60  30  30
FMY  91  75  91  77 /  70  40  50  30
GIF  93  74  93  76 /  70  40  50  20
SRQ  91  75  91  77 /  70  60  20  30
BKV  92  73  93  74 /  70  60  30  30
SPG  91  79  91  81 /  70  60  20  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Flannery
MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce