513
FXUS62 KTBW 162324
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
724 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
Issued at 716 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025
Strong high pressure surface and aloft will continue to hold over
the region through the weekend with hot dry conditions away from
the coast. Mostly clear skies and above normal temperatures are
expected each day with highs in the lower to mid 90s inland...but
only in the lower to mid 80s at the immediate coast due to the
relatively cooler Gulf waters and onshore winds. Some patchy late
night/early morning fog is also possible mainly across the nature
coast tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Broad upper ridging over the gulf extends northeastward over Florida
and along the eastern seaboard. This persistent ridge will become
more west-east oriented over the weekend and into next week and will
shift slightly eastward. On the surface, high pressure ridging
across Florida remains the dominant weather feature through the
weekend and first half of next week. This will lead to rain-free
conditions and above average temperatures across west central and
southwest Florida for a majority of the forecast period. The only
weather concern will be the heat each afternoon with daytime highs
topping out in the upper 80`s along the coast, to the mid 90`s over
the interior. Heat indices will reach 100-105 degrees as well each
afternoon. By next Wednesday, the upper ridge and surface high
pressure shifts southward as upper troughing and a frontal boundary
moves through the southeast U.S. This front will bring a slight
chance of showers to the area Wednesday evening through Thursday
afternoon. This will also bring some relief to the oppressive heat
bringing temperatures down a few degrees closer to average, as well
as some lower humidity, for the latter part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 716 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals for the next 24 hours
with skies generally SKC to FEW250 tonight and Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

High pressure ridging across the Florida peninsula and into the
eastern gulf will remain the dominant weather feature through the
weekend and into next week. Winds will remain around 10 knots or
less, seas 2 feet or less and rain-free conditions expected each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

High pressure remains over the area with rain-free conditions and
hot weather expected through the weekend and into next week.
Humidity values will drop to near critical levels over the interior
each of the next couple afternoons, but light winds will preclude
the need for a Red Flag Warning. Patchy high dispersion indices are
forecast for Saturday afternoon, mainly over the Nature Coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  76  92  76 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  94  74  92  75 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  97  70  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  89  74  90  74 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  93  66  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  89  77  89  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close