045
FXUS62 KTBW 060041
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
841 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Isolated showers/storms continue to pop up along existing outflow
boundaries from previous storms. This activity should die down this
evening as the remaining instability diminishes. A high will camp
out in the Gulf tomorrow and bring heat indices up to 108 in spots,
particularly southwest. The steering flow will be very light
tomorrow, so expect any showers and storms that form to move at
various speeds/directions as they interact with existing outflow
boundaries and the daily sea-breeze. PWATS will increase through the
afternoon and reach as high as 2.1", so any storms that form could
dump a quick few inches of rain pretty quickly over localized areas,
especially as you move south.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

The upper-level ridge continues to move farther westward into the
central Gulf, and the southwesterly flow continues to push humid air
over Florida today with a PWAT of 1.7 to 2.1. Scattered showers and
isolated storms are likely to continue inland late this afternoon
and into the evening.

As we transition into a neutral flow Wednesday, storms will begin to
populate on the coast and slow down, increasing the chances for
localized flooding throughout the area. NHC also has a weak surface
trough off the SE U.S. coast with a 40% chance of development in the
next 7 days which will produce a wetter pattern starting Thursday
and continuing into later this week.

Regardless of any development off the SE coast, expect a boost of
extra moisture for the weekend. A strong southeasterly flow will
also help to keep most of the shower activity on the W coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 756 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Drier air limited convection across terminals this afternoon and
evening. The very little that is left should continue to dissipate
over the next hour with VFR conditions prevailing. Light and
variable winds will become northerly during the day on Wednesday
and become more northwesterly in the afternoon. Higher moisture
availability is expected to support more storm coverage, and the
highest rain chances should begin inland and push towards the
coast later in the afternoon/evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  93  80  94 /  30  60  40  70
FMY  77  94  77  95 /  40  80  40  70
GIF  76  94  77  95 /  40  70  30  70
SRQ  77  93  77  93 /  20  60  40  70
BKV  73  94  74  94 /  20  60  30  70
SPG  81  92  80  91 /  20  60  40  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Austin
AVIATION...Delerme
DECISION SUPPORT...Davis