870
FXUS62 KTBW 052358
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
758 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 757 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

A very serious situation continues to develop across the Gulf of
Mexico and for West Central and Southwest Florida. A deep moisture
axis is overspreading the region ahead of a sinking frontal
boundary. When combined with moisture and instability, this means
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region
over the next few days, with a high potential for flooding to occur,
which has led to a Flood Watch for all of west central and southwest
Florida. This is ahead of the main event for the week: Tropical
Storm Milton.

Key Points:

* Milton is expected to quickly intensify while it moves E to NE
  across the Gulf and will be at or near major hurricane strength as
  it reaches the west of Coast of Florida beginning late Tuesday or
  Wednesday.
* There is an increasing risk for life-threatening storm surge and
  wind impacts beginning late Tuesday into Wednesday
* Areas of heavy rainfall will impact the area starting tomorrow and
  will continue through mid-week

After Milton passes, weather conditions will gradually improve. High
pressure settles in, with a slightly cooler and drier airmass
settling in.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 757 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

We are in for a wet period through at least mid-week. We`re already
seeing SCT/BKN clouds around 4kft this evening and scattered SHRA
over SW FL. Moderate rain chances persist through much of tomorrow,
so will hold SHRA starting at 08Z for all sites and continuing
through the day on Sunday. VFR conditions will turn to MVFR with
lower CIGs and VSBY restrictions during the afternoon on Sunday.
Easterly winds around 5-10 knots expected through Sunday morning,
then increasing to around 8-12 knots with gusts near 18 knots
possible late morning and into the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 757 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Easterly winds continue through the weekend, with typical afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances increase
tomorrow and into early next week as an axis of moisture spreads
across the region. Marine conditions will deteriorate through the
week as Tropical Storm Milton strengthens into a hurricane and moves
eastward through the Gulf of Mexico. Life- threatening marine
conditions are possible by the middle of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  82  73  81 /  20  60  40  50
FMY  76  84  74  83 /  50  80  60  70
GIF  76  83  73  81 /  20  60  50  50
SRQ  75  84  72  81 /  30  70  50  50
BKV  73  82  72  81 /  10  60  40  50
SPG  78  83  75  82 /  20  60  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Thursday morning for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-
     Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland
     Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland
     Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Delerme