Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
407 FXUS62 KTBW 271849 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 249 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Another quiet weather day is underway across West Central Florida with clear skies and temperatures warming up quickly into the mid 80`s. As we go into our Friday high pressure will continue to push into the Atlantic but at the same time we will be seeing a developing system in the midwest. This will increase our pressure gradient and bring some breezier winds to our area in the afternoon and evening. This along with the drier air will bring borderline Red Flag Warning to the area. Humidity will be going up and winds going down slightly by our Saturday. Winds will also shift southerly bringing some tropical moisture to the area. This will bring in some isolated showers and storms Saturday afternoon. By Sunday we will see an upper level trough push the area. This upper level energy plus the warm humidity conditions will bring us scattered showers and storms through the afternoon and evening hours. After the trough passes we will continue to see some isolated showers for both Monday and Tuesday afternoon due to the warm and humid conditions. During those two days we will see a strong cold front pass just to our north. This front could bring some severe weather over Levy county Monday evening and into the overnight hours. However the front should stay north of the rest of our area. Temperatures will also be the warmest we have seen so far this spring with widespread 90`s in the forecast for both Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025 VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds are expected to pick up to 15 to 20 knots starting early tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025 A developing system in the midwest will tighten our pressure gradient bringing some breezier easterly winds throughout the day on Friday and into Saturday morning. We can expect Exercise Caution on our offshore waters with 10 to 15 everywhere else. Winds will decrease slightly for the weekend and shift more southeasterly. Our best chance to see storms will be Sunday evening as storms that develop overland during the afternoon hours start to push off the west coast of Florida. Winds will shift more to the south on Monday around 5 to 10 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Winds will be picking up Friday afternoon to around 10 to 15 mph with RHs in the mid to upper 30`s. This will bring borderline Red Flag Warning conditions to the area. During the weekend winds will shift more southerly brining RHs well above critical levels with no other fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 64 84 66 86 / 0 0 0 20 FMY 62 85 65 86 / 0 0 0 30 GIF 62 83 63 85 / 0 0 0 20 SRQ 62 83 66 86 / 0 0 0 20 BKV 56 85 59 87 / 0 0 0 20 SPG 68 81 68 83 / 0 0 0 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Giarratana UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana