300
FXUS62 KTBW 060650
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
250 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.DISCUSSION...
Low pressure aloft continues to spin over the region while Tropical
Storm Chantal moves toward the Carolina coast. There is also a weak
surface trough across the Florida peninsula that has aided in some
of the convection from last night. As we head through today, Chantal
will move onshore and the boundary over the peninsula will wash out.
Moisture will not be as high today compared with previous days, so
rainfall coverage should be lower. Then for the rest of the week, we
get back to a more typical summertime storm pattern as the Atlantic
ridge builds back in.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
A few showers continue near area terminals early this morning and
will remain possible through daybreak, though impacts are expected
to be limited. For the rest of the day, storm coverage should be
lower, but still expecting activity moving in southwest flow early
afternoon into the evening before most convection shifts east of the
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below headlines for the next several
days. Daily showers and storms are expected and will produce
briefly higher winds and seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain
above critical levels. Warm and humid summertime conditions will
continue, with scattered showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  79  91  79 /  50  20  50  10
FMY  91  77  93  76 /  40  10  60  10
GIF  91  76  93  76 /  50  10  50  10
SRQ  88  78  90  76 /  40  20  40  10
BKV  90  74  91  73 /  60  10  50   0
SPG  86  79  88  79 /  40  30  40  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...TBW
DECISION SUPPORT...TBW
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...TBW