938
FXUS62 KTBW 101126
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
626 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
VFR conditions are expected through the first part of tonight. A
cold front with a line of showers and some MVFR cigs/vsbys will
pass over Tampa Bay area terminals starting around 08Z and then
slowly progress southward through the rest of the morning. Winds
will already be gusty out of the south and then southwest, but any
stronger showers could produce some higher gusts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

A cold air mass remains over Florida this morning and a Freeze
Warning remains in effect until 8 AM for parts of the Nature Coast.
A short period of slightly warmer air moves into the region later
today into Saturday. As high pressure moves off the southeast U.S.,
northeast winds will veer to the south-southeast later this evening
ahead of the next developing weather system. A brief period of
warmer temps closer to average expected today and tonight. Daytime
highs today will reach the upper 60`s to mid 70`s with overnight
lows in the 50`s and 60`s.

As seen on latest satellite imagery as well as latest model
guidance, the next weather system continues to develop over the
northern gulf coast states near Louisiana this morning. This system
will move east-northeastward through the southeast U.S. through
Saturday evening. This will bring our next round of showers and a
few storms late Friday evening through Saturday afternoon, then
exiting into the western Atlantic by Saturday evening. In the wake
of this frontal system, high pressure will build in over the area
producing rain-free and cooler conditions once again for the
remainder of the weekend.

Another area of low pressure then develops over the central Gulf of
Mexico early Monday morning and will move eastward toward Florida
producing our next round of showers and stray storms through the day
on Monday. Daytime highs on Sunday and Monday will top out in the
upper 50`s to low 70`s with overnight lows in the upper 30`s to mid
50`s. High pressure will build back into the area from the north by
Tuesday with clearing and cooler conditions for the middle to latter
part of next week. Daytime highs starting Tuesday will top out only
in the 50`s and 60`s with overnight lows in the 30`s and 40`s once
again.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

High pressure moves into the western Atlantic and will produce east-
southeast winds around 15 knots and rain-free conditions through
late this evening. The next weather system will move through the
eastern gulf waters late Friday into Saturday afternoon bringing the
next round of showers and storms to the area. Increasing southerly
winds to around 20 knots and building seas in the vicinity of this
front has prompted the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory from this
evening through Saturday morning. Rain-free conditions, decreasing
winds and abating seas expected late Saturday into Sunday. Another
area of low pressure moves through the eastern gulf waters on Monday
with a chance of showers and a stray storm. A slight uptick in winds
and seas expected late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

Increasing moisture can be expected today ahead of the next weather
system that is expected to move through the area late this evening
through Saturday afternoon. Showers and a stray storm can be
expected with frontal passage. Winds will also be gusty at times
producing some high dispersions today. Rain-free conditions and
decreasing winds expected late Saturday into Sunday. No other fire
weather concerns expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  59  65  45 /   0  60  10   0
FMY  74  62  73  51 /   0  10  30   0
GIF  73  59  66  44 /   0  40  20   0
SRQ  73  61  69  48 /   0  40  20   0
BKV  72  54  63  37 /   0  70  10   0
SPG  68  60  64  49 /   0  60  20   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday
     for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

Aviation...Carlisle
Previous...Wynn