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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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767 FXUS62 KTBW 010741 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 341 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 341 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Currently at the surface, the sub-tropical ridge of high pressure centered over the Atlantic is extending across central Florida, keeping light and generally southerly/southeasterly flow in place across the forecast area. This pattern will hold through Tuesday, favoring showers and a few storms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the early morning hours, perhaps shifting into the coast at times. Land based storms will then start to develop by early afternoon along the west coast sea breeze near the coast, then numerous storms will continue to shift inland through the afternoon and early evening hours as the sea breeze pushes inland. Wednesday and Thursday, ridging aloft will shift east into the southeastern US, providing some broad subsidence while the surface ridge redevelops north and sets up more of an easterly flow pattern. While the subsidence may limit rain chances slightly, the easterly flow will favor afternoon and early evening storms building towards the west coast with the east coast sea breeze. Temperatures should also creep up slightly during the second half of the week as a result of the subsidence. Friday through the weekend, the surface ridge is forecast to slide back south across southern Florida, returning to a light southerly flow pattern. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 341 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Mostly VFR conditions will hold the morning, although some isolated MVFR-LIFR ceilings may briefly impact terminals at times thorugh just after sunrise. Scattered to numerous storms will develop by early afternoon in the vicinity of area terminals, building inland through the rest of the afternoon. Storms are most likely to linger past 00z at interior and southwest Florida locations like KLAL, KRSW, KFMY, and KPGD, but rain free and generally VFR conditions are expected to return by around 02z. && .MARINE... Issued at 341 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 A ridge of high pressure sitting over the coastal waters will keep light south and southeast flow in place today and Tuesday, turning onshore near the coast each afternoon with the seabreeze. The ridge lifts north on Wednesday, favoring more southeast to easterly flow for the rest of the week. Winds and seas will generally remain well below headline criteria, although daily thunderstorms will produce locally hazardous boating conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 341 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 No humidity concerns. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop each day this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 79 93 78 / 60 20 50 40 FMY 91 77 92 78 / 60 30 70 30 GIF 94 77 95 77 / 60 40 60 20 SRQ 90 77 92 78 / 40 20 50 30 BKV 92 74 94 75 / 60 20 50 30 SPG 91 82 92 82 / 50 20 40 40 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 7 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Fleming