781
FXUS62 KTBW 032347
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
747 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

No changes to existing forecast. High pressure ridging continues
to influence the local area while a frontal boundary remains
stalled to the north across S GA/N FL. Light variable to
southerly flow overnight will shift to onshore during the morning
as the sea breeze takes shape and begins to advance inland. A few
overnight and early morning showers will be possible for coastal
areas as gulf moisture streams north, with a better chance of
showers/storms away from the immediate coast during the afternoon
into evening with sea breeze and outflow boundary collisions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

The hot and humid conditions continue today. As the same set up
remains over the area. A stalled front over North Florida will keep
the greatest rain chances north of the nature coast. A little bit of
dry air in the mid levels today will limit rain chances for this
afternoon. However, isolated showers have popped up just east of the
coast and more could develop further inland later this afternoon
into the evening. Looking into the start of the week, more of the
same continues. A little Saharan Dust may mix in over our area as
the flow becomes more SE through the week, which will act to limit
rain chances. However, the SAL will not be the only determining
factor when it comes to rainfall throughout the week. A frontal
boundary will also linger over the state, adding moisture. It will
be a battle this week to see which air mass wins out. Overall, it
will continue to be warm and rather humid with the possibility of
relief if afternoon thunderstorms are able to develop.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 738 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Light flow overnight gradually shifting to southerly during the
morning then onshore across coastal terminals afternoon and
evening will favor mostly VFR conditions through the period. Flow
setup will favor a chance of overnight showers streaming north off
the gulf, mainly for SWFL terminals, therefore have included a
PROB30 SHRA group from 10-14Z. Chances for northern coastal
terminals a bit more uncertain with no associated mention for now.
Late afternoon to early evening TSRA chances across all terminals
as sea breeze coalesces and drifts inland, highest confidence for
LAL where VCTS is included after 20Z, and PROB30 for remaining
terminals generally 17-22Z. Again could see some late evening E
FL sea breeze convection make its way across S FL to SWFL
terminals before dissipating, but for now will monitor trends.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

No marine concerns for most of the week as the flow remains below
10kts. Some showers and thunderstorms could develop over the water
in the morning and could possibly contain some stronger gusts, and
lightning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Fire weather concerns remain minimal as ample moisture remains and
winds continue to be light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  93  81  92 /  20  60  40  50
FMY  79  94  78  95 /  20  60  30  50
GIF  78  95  77  95 /  20  60  20  60
SRQ  79  92  78  92 /  20  50  40  40
BKV  74  93  74  93 /  10  60  40  50
SPG  82  90  81  90 /  20  50  40  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...Giarratana
UPPER AIR...Hubbard