Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
890 FXUS62 KTBW 121333 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 933 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 226 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - Small craft should continue to exercise caution today as winds and seas subside. There will be additional periods of gustier winds each evening from near sunset to around midnight that will cause seas to increase by a foot or so. - An otherwise quiet pattern is forecast for the next several days. - The next storm system arrives in about a week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 931 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 It it comfortably cool this morning as most areas fell to the 60s last night and even some upper 50s across far northern portions of the forecast area. Recent satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies at this time other than a narrow band of stratocu moving through southern interior areas and expecting near full sunshine to continue area-wide for the remainder of the day. Despite the clear skies, continued northerly flow and the presence of an upper level low aloft will keep highs a few degrees below normal as most areas reach the low/mid 80s, but still very pleasant weather conditions expected today with much more comfortable humidity levels. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 A deep upper-level low is situated over the state as the associated surface storm system, colloquially known as a Nor`Easter, moves up the Atlantic Coast towards the Outer Banks of North Carolina. As this system pulls away, a slightly cooler and noticeably drier continental airmass is being advected over the state. Surface high pressure is settling in, allowing what has been a strong pressure gradient and thus breezy weather, to begin subsiding. This will continue through the day as the drier air aloft mixes down to the surface, slowly eroding the residual cloud cover that continues to stream across the state. A strong ridge axis is building in from the west aloft as the subtropical ridge axis simultaneously builds westward. This is forcing the upper-level low into a positively-tilted situation where much of the energy is rapidly forced north and eastward away from the area. Ultimately, ridging is forecast to build back across the region over the next 48 hours or so. Thus, high pressure will be the dominant feature of the week and a NNE flow generally. However, today`s flow will be a bit more variable given ridging hasn`t fully settled in yet. Coastal areas are favored to see more of a NW flow this afternoon while inland areas stick to more of a true north direction. Overall, this setup favors quiet weather. For the next couple days, conditions will remain mostly sunny, with afternoon temperatures still climbing into the mid-80s. Given the overall drier nature of the atmosphere, however, morning lows will be noticeably cooler in the low 60s and perhaps even the upper 50s in northern sections of the Nature Coast. Mid-week, some residual upper-level energy moving through the region on the trailing edge of the upper-level low pushing out over the North Atlantic favors a secondary frontal boundary moving through the area. While a few clouds and perhaps a stray shower cannot be ruled out, this won`t have much of an impact on conditions, other than to largely reinforce the status quo. Over the weekend, the pattern starts to break down. Through the week, the ridge will gradually flatten out, allowing for a deep trough to dig into the Great Plains and thus intensify and negatively tilt. This will suppress the upper-level ridge and push the surface high to the east. In response, the flow will veer to more of a southerly direction, advecting moisture and warmer air back into the area. By Sunday, temperatures are again pushing 90 degrees across the region as another cold front approaches the area. So after some quieter and more fall-like weather through the week, there will be a return of warmer and more humid conditions next weekend before the next system arrives to potentially bring change once again. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 726 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period as high pressure and drier air builds into the region. Surface winds will be out of the N-NW today at 5-10 kts with wind speeds then falling below 5 kts overnight and shifting slightly more to the NE. && .MARINE... Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 As winds subside, wave heights will also decrease today. However, small craft should continue to exercise caution through the morning as it will take several hours for seas to subside, even as the winds decrease. Quieter marine weather is expected for the next several days as a northerly and eventually more northeasterly flow prevails through the week. With the northeast flow especially, there will be periods of gustier winds from near sunset through about midnight each night. This favors seas increasing by about a foot or so through the overnight hours before gradually decreasing towards morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 A drier pattern is settling across the peninsula for the next few days. There is no meaningful rain in the forecast until late next weekend. In response to the drier air, the RH values will decrease and bottom out each day in the 40% to 50% range. However, winds will remain around 10 knots or less out of the NW today and out of the NE through the week ahead. Red flag conditions are not forecast to be met at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 84 67 87 67 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 85 67 87 67 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 84 64 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 83 66 86 66 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 83 59 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 81 69 84 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Carlisle