Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
496 FXUS62 KTBW 010015 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 715 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog is forecast Monday morning across the interior, with low clouds elsewhere. - The next cold front approaches and moves through the area Tuesday/Tuesday night bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 713 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 With the sun now set, the winds are becoming light and variable and temperatures are starting to drop. Some mid-level clouds are also beginning to stream in from the west, making the overnight forecast a bit tricky. Dewpoints are forecast to slowly climb through the night as the actual air temperature continues to decline. With a fairly light wind, this is favorable for fog to develop. The question is whether or not microscale subtleties could disrupt development. Ultimately, the main update to the forecast this evening was the decision to add some mention of patchy fog into the forecast across the interior. However, overall confidence remains low. It is very possible that just a low cloud deck to develops overnight, with just instability and wind to keep this a few hundred feet off the surface. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 713 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 The main impact is the potential for IFR/LIFR conditions from approximately 07Z to 14Z. This is most likely to be low CIGs, potentially as low as 200 to 300 ft. However, KLAL and KPGD do have a slightly higher potential of seeing reduced visibility due to BR/FG as well if the winds become light enough. There could be another potential window overnight tomorrow for IFR/LIFR before storms move into the region after 06Z Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 113 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 Forecast remains on track with warming expected today and tomorrow before a cold front moves through Tuesday. A few isolated showers could materialize tomorrow as the frontal boundary stalls across north Florida, increasing moisture. By Tuesday, this front will push south, increasing rain chances further. Some thunderstorms could also be possible Tuesday as the front moves through. Behind the front, slightly cooler and drier air will move in as high pressure builds back in. Temperatures moderate once again heading into next weekend, before another frontal boundary moves towards the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 113 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 East, northeast winds remain around 10-15kts over the waters today and tomorrow. Tuesday, a cold front will move through bringing a line of showers, possible thunderstorms, and increased winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 113 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 Fire weather concerns remain limited with RH values above critical levels. A cold front moves through Tuesday with dry air filtering in behind it. However, RH values will remain above critical. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 66 83 69 80 / 10 10 20 60 FMY 66 84 68 82 / 10 10 10 30 GIF 64 82 67 82 / 10 20 10 60 SRQ 64 84 68 80 / 0 10 20 50 BKV 59 83 63 80 / 10 10 30 70 SPG 67 81 70 78 / 10 10 20 60 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Flannery PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Pearce