106
FXUS62 KTBW 021215
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
815 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1201 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Early morning satellite imagery is showing a frontal boundary
extending down the eastern seaboard and into the southeastern US,
with a surface trough building into the northeastern Gulf. This
system will dominate the weather pattern through the rest of the
week, with the surface trough lingering in the area and is forecast
to develop into at least an open low by this weekend or early next
week. While the National Hurricane Center has a 40% chance of this
low developing into a subtropical or tropical depression somewhere
in the vicinity of Florida, the impacts to west-central and
southwest Florida looks to be deep moisture and prolonged rainy
conditions regardless of if tropical development happens.

For today, as the surface trough builds into the northeastern Gulf,
showers and storms will start moving into the coast during the early
morning hours and continuing to build in through the rest of the
day. This will result in some areas seeing heavy rain and
potentially minor flooding, with the highest rain totals expected
along the coast. As the trough/surface low continues to develop,
prolonged periods of heavy rain will continue to build into Florida
from the Gulf Thursday and Friday, with 3 day rain totals forecast
to be as high as 5-7 inches along the coast, with locally higher
amounts possible in places that see repeated training rain bands.

Drier air will start to wrap into the area from the northwest this
weekend or early next week as the low lifts out, allowing rain
totals to moderate somewhat. Continued southwesterly flow during the
first half of next week will lead to scattered to numerous showers
and storms shifting onshore in the late morning and early afternoon,
building into the interior through early evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 813 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

A stall out boundary will start to bring widespread showers to the
our area through the TAF period. I have highlight the best chance
of thunderstorms. Winds will primarily be out of the south and
southeast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1201 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

A broad surface trough digging into the northeastern Gulf today will
linger through the rest of the week, developing into an open low
this weekend or early next week somewhere in the vicinity of
Florida. While winds are forecast to generally remain less than 15
knots, this system will bring lots of rain to the area, creating
locally higher winds and hazardous marine conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1201 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

No humidity concerns as deep moisture remains over the area.
Numerous to widespread showers and storms will begin shifting onshore
from the Gulf this morning and continue building into the Florida
Peninsula through today and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  77  86  78 /  80  80  90  60
FMY  90  77  88  76 /  80  60  90  70
GIF  89  75  86  75 /  80  60  90  50
SRQ  88  76  86  76 /  80  80  90  60
BKV  88  73  87  73 /  90  70  90  50
SPG  85  77  85  78 /  80  80  90  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Davis
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Davis