661
FXUS62 KTBW 011822
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
222 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure aloft extends over Florida this afternoon with
troughing to the north. At the surface, weak high pressure is off to
our east and a light wind flow remains in place across the local
area. Some scattered showers and storms will continue through the
rest of the day, mainly moving inland as flow is onshore along the
coast.

Northeast/east flow will build in through the rest of the week,
switching the highest rain chances back toward the west coast each
afternoon and evening. A lot of uncertainty continues for the
weekend and early next week forecast as models still bring low
pressure into the Gulf, but the whole situation looks rather messy
at this point. For now, the takeaway would be a likely increase in
moisture with that system, which could lead to higher rain chances
for us. Something to keep an eye on, but confidence remains low in
any solution at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Mainly VFR conditions continue this afternoon, though a few pockets
of MVFR cigs will affect terminals periodically. A few thunderstorms
will be possible near coastal terminals over the next few hours,
then best chances will be for KLAL as activity shifts generally
inland. For tonight, there are some early signals that we could see
some lower clouds (MVFR) near dawn, but confidence is too low to
include in the forecast for now.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds this morning become onshore in the afternoon with the
sea breeze, then transition to northeast/east through the end of the
week. No headlines expected for the next several days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain
above critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  88  76  90 /  20  50  20  50
FMY  76  90  76  91 /  20  40  20  60
GIF  75  90  75  91 /  30  60  20  60
SRQ  75  90  75  91 /  20  40  30  50
BKV  73  89  73  91 /  20  50  10  40
SPG  78  89  79  91 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

05/Carlisle