854
FXUS62 KTBW 190823
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
423 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

A fairly active morning, compared to what we have see over the
last few days. Showers and maybe a storm or two have been
developing mainly along the coast as west to southwest flow
pushes them onshore. Meanwhile, a broad upper level trough
centered over the Northeast and stretching down into the SE should
crawl its way east through the next few days. At the same time, a
weak front should move across the peninsula later today and into
Friday. Slightly drier air around these features should limit
storm coverage through the period, but isolated to scattered are
still anticipated. Afternoon temperatures remain pretty constant
peaking around 90 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM (SAT-WED)...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Over the weekend, troughiness remains along the Eastern Seaboard,
but ridge of high pressure pushes and builds into next week. As a
result, northeasterly flow sets up and continuing to support
slightly drier conditions limiting showers and storm coverage and
development during this time. Unfortunately, moisture will also
be high enough to keep heat indices in the triple digits as
temperatures remain int he 90s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR conditions prevail across most terminals overnight withe
intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions possible, especially over SW FL
through the morning. Showers over the water could be in the
vicinity of coastal airports after around 09Z, but should
dissipate by the late morning SRQ north. However, there is a
chance for showers and storms to develop near PGD/FMY/RSW with a
nonzero chance for LAL. Most of this activity should dissipate
into the evening. LIght winds become west to northwesterly
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

A weak front should move across the area today shifting winds from
the northwest. Then, ridge of high pressure builds going into the
weekend and early next week. East to northeasterly winds prevail
at around 10 knots with evening surges bumping winds up to around
15 knots, possibly exercise caution levels early next week. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible
through the period. No headlines are expected through the weekend.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Slightly lower moisture will keep showers and storm coverage lower
than usual, however, isolated to scattered activity is still
anticipated each afternoon and evening. Minimum humidity values
remain well above critical levels, along with light winds, which will
keep no fire weather hazards during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  75  90  75 /  30   0  10  10
FMY  90  75  92  75 /  60  30  40  20
GIF  92  74  92  74 /  40  10  20   0
SRQ  90  75  92  74 /  30   0  20  20
BKV  91  71  91  70 /  20   0  10   0
SPG  90  79  91  77 /  30   0  10  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ADavis