Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
813 FXUS62 KTBW 010740 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 240 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog and some low clouds are expected this morning and again late tonight into early Tuesday morning. - The next cold front approaches and moves through the area late Tuesday/Tuesday night bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. - Some cooler drier air overspreads the region for midweek, then temperatures and humidity quickly moderate late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 An upper level trough and associated low pressure system will move across the eastern U.S. today and Tuesday pushing a surface cold front south through the region late Tuesday afternoon and early Tuesday night. Moisture will continue to gradually increase ahead of the front and we could see a few late day/early evening light showers/sprinkles across southwest Florida today. The main chance of showers and a few thunderstorms will be from late tonight through Tuesday ahead of the boundary with the highest rain chances across the Nature Coast closer to the upper level support. Behind the front, high pressure will move into the southeast U.S. during midweek with northerly winds ushering in some cooler drier air. Not expecting as big of a cool down as the one we saw at the end of last week, but still noticeably drier. By Friday, the high will have weakened with the next upper level trough and associated developing low pressure system moving across the deep south. Moisture will begin to increase once again as the flow veers to southeast Friday and then south to southwest Saturday. However, the exact strength and location of the trough and associated shortwave energy varies between the global models which effects the location and timing of the next cold front. The GFS stalls the front across north Florida over the weekend while the ECMWF pushes the boundary south through the region by Sunday. Either way it looks there will be a chance of a few showers Friday night and Saturday, with the highest PoPs across the Nature Coast. After this the forecast for early next week is still rather uncertain and will depend on the location and timing of the cold front. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 240 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 Some areas of MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible early this morning as patches of low clouds and fog are expected to develop. The MVFR ceilings could linger through much of the morning in some locations then VFR conditions are expected for the afternoon into early tonight. Northeast to east winds around 5 knots early this morning will increase to 7 to 10 knots during mid-morning and continue through the afternoon, then veer to southeast at around 5 knots by late Monday evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 240 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 East to northeast winds at 10 to 15 knots will veer to southeast to south later tonight and then southwest and increase to around 15 knots by Tuesday afternoon as a cold front approaches the waters. There is a low probability of sea fog developing later tonight into Tuesday as the front moves toward the area. This boundary will move across the coastal waters late Tuesday afternoon and early Tuesday night preceded and accompanied by some showers and a few thunderstorms. Behind the front, northerly winds return as high pressure builds in, but are expected to remain 15 knots or less. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 240 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 Fire weather concerns remain limited as a warm and rather humid airmass will be across the region into Tuesday. A cold front will move across the region late Tuesday and early Tuesday night with some cooler drier air filtering in behind it. However, relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical thresholds through the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 83 69 80 60 / 10 20 50 10 FMY 85 68 81 64 / 20 20 30 10 GIF 83 67 82 59 / 10 10 50 0 SRQ 83 67 79 61 / 10 10 50 10 BKV 83 63 81 51 / 10 20 60 0 SPG 81 69 78 62 / 10 20 50 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Close DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...Hurt