Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
816 FXUS62 KTBW 131257 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 857 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 120 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 - There will be periods of gusty winds along the coast each evening from near sunset to around midnight that will cause seas to increase by a foot or so. - Little to no precipitation expected through the work week as high pressure builds into the region. - The next storm system arrives in about a week. .UPDATE... Issued at 849 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Latest surface obs show that temperatures this morning were a bit cooler than previously forecast mainly across the Nature Coast where temperatures dropped into the low 50s earlier. Thus, have made some adjustments to hourly temperatures this morning but the full insolation today will still allow highs to reach the low/mid 80s area-wide despite the slightly cooler start in some areas. Also decided to adjust dewpoints downwards for this afternoon with a CONSALL/NBM blend as diurnal mixing combined with the dry air mass in place should yield dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s later today. Otherwise, a fantastic day ahead with no other forecast changes planned at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Florida remains underneath an upper-level trough axis as a Nor`Easter moves up the east coast. Ridging is building back in from the west, with surface high pressure taking control. In response to these features, a northerly flow continues to pull significantly drier and more pleasant air across the state. This is evidenced by the 0Z sounding PWAT of only 0.93 inches. High pressure will dominate through the week as the low moves up the east coast. However, a weak perturbation moving through on the back side of the storm system does look to move through the region mid-week. This favors another front moving through to largely maintain the status quo. That being said, there will be about a 10% chance for a shower across the interior as this system moves through. While not necessarily being explicitly forecast at this time, this weak system could bring a few more clouds to the area as it passes for a brief period. Winds will increase by maybe 5 mph or so as well. Overall, though, impacts will be minimal. Gradual warming takes place through the weak, but will become more noticeable as the weekend approaches. This will be due to increasing humidity as the winds veer to an ESE direction behind the secondary front late in the week. As the upper-level flow becomes meridional, this will push the ridge axis east. Eventually, another trough axis and an attendant cold front are expected to approach the area. Compared to this time yesterday, the eastward progression of this system has slowed. However, early next week, it looks like the next storm system will be on our doorstep to bring change to the forecast once more. Expect increasingly warm and humid conditions to return, along with a chance for at least isolated storms, before this next system moves through. For now, though, enjoy the quiet start to the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 717 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period as high pressure remain in control. Surface winds will be out of the N-NE this morning and gradually shift to the N-NW by the afternoon as a sea breeze develops with winds around 5-10 kts throughout the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 With lighter winds, seas are expected to generally be lighter during the day as well through the middle of the week. However, mariners should expect a six hour period each evening beginning around sunset where winds will increase, pushing up seas by about a foot or so. By mid-week, winds will again increase slightly, pushing seas higher again. However, rain-free conditions will last until the weekend at least. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 A drier airmass has settled across the peninsula, favoring RH values bottoming out around in the mid-40s today and near-critical RH values tomorrow. However, winds remain light enough to preclude any red flag concerns at this time. Moisture will again start to increase mid-week as the flow transitions from the more northerly flow today and tomorrow to more of a easterly and eventually southeasterly flow late in the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 86 68 88 67 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 88 67 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 85 65 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 85 66 87 65 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 85 59 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 83 70 85 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana DECISION SUPPORT...Close UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close