Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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657 FXUS62 KTBW 300702 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 302 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Overall quiet conditions as the work week begins. Upper level ridging over the SW Atlantic. Rain chances remain low today, except for areas north of I4 and areas in SWFL, where some isolated shower or storms could be possible. Rain chances steadily increase throughout the week as deeper moisture moves over the area. A surface high pressure will build into the easter seabord transitioning the flow to more of a breezy easterly component as the pressure gradient tightens up. Temperatures today and tomorrow will likely be the highest for the week in the low to mid 90s. As clouds and rain coverage increase through the week, temperatures will hang around the upper 80s to lower 90s. Another tropical disturbance is expected to develop somewhere in the Western Caribbean by mid week then moving into the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week. Currently the NHC has this system marked with a medium (50%) chance of development in the next 7 days. Forecast confidence for this system still remains low at this time with model guidance showing many different possibilities. At this time, we will continue to monitor the system closely and provide frequent updates. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 255 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 VFR conditions prevail through the period. Though a bit drier today, a few isolated shower can not be ruled out. Best chance for any development will be north of I4, and possibly a few in SWFL. Confidence was low so kept out of the TAF at this time. Light and variable winds overnight turn to more WSW during the afternoon before once again becoming light and variable overnight. By midweek the flow will shift to a more easterly direction and increase. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Light and variable flow has helped limit any marine hazards moving into the week. Winds will shift more WSW to Easterly as the week goes on and will gradually increase each day. All eyes on another tropical system that could work its way into the Gulf of Mexico by end of the week, which will once again disrupt conditions in the Gulf. Currently, forecast confidence on this system is low, but will continue to be monitored. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 255 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 RH values remain summertime levels, keeping any fire weather concerns at bay. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 77 90 75 / 10 20 60 40 FMY 94 77 93 76 / 30 20 40 30 GIF 95 77 93 75 / 20 10 60 30 SRQ 92 77 91 75 / 10 30 50 40 BKV 92 74 91 72 / 20 10 60 40 SPG 91 80 90 79 / 10 30 60 40 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce DECISION SUPPORT...Close