Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
190 FXUS62 KTBW 041308 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 908 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 903 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025 Southeast low level flow continues across the area this morning with satellite imagery showing mainly clear skies across west central and southwest FL, though so scattered cumulus is pushing in from the southeast along the east coast. Otherwise, it is a quiet and warm morning across the region as unseasonably warm to record highs are anticipated once again with highs reaching the low/mid 90s this afternoon as strong ridging aloft remains in control. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025 An area of low pressure is located over northern New England with the associated frontal boundary extending southwestward from this low through western Tennessee and into eastern Texas. A large swath of severe weather and flooding continues in the vicinity of this frontal boundary through the day. Closer to home here in Florida, as we have seen the past few days, broad upper ridging centered off the Carolina coastline extends from the northeastern gulf, over Florida and then further eastward to Bermuda. On the surface, a 1030 mb high pressure center near Bermuda ridges westward through the western Atlantic, across northern Florida and into the northeastern gulf. This will keep rain-free conditions, above average temperatures and breezy southeast winds over Florida for today. By Saturday morning, the frontal boundary remains stretched between Ohio and central Texas and will continue to produce severe weather and flooding over the Ohio River and Mississippi River Valleys. The high pressure between Bermuda and the Carolinas will keep this frontal boundary and its effects north of the area, allowing for rain-free conditions and warm temperatures to continue over Florida through the weekend. By Sunday evening, the high pressure shifts east of Bermuda while a cold front approaches the area from the west. This front will bring us our next chance of showers and storms starting early Monday morning over the northeast gulf and Nature Coast and spreading farther south through the day on Monday and continuing into Tuesday. The front will push south and east of Florida by Tuesday evening with clearing conditions expected by the middle of next week. This will also bring an end to the record breaking heat and cool things down for a few days next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 740 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025 Occasional MVFR CIGs will occur at KTPA/KPIE early in the TAF period before low clouds scatter out and VFR conditions then return the region area-wide through the remainder of the day. Winds will generally be out of the SE today and breezy at times with gusts around 20 kts or slightly more at times, but winds may gradually shift to the SW at coastal sites later today as the sea breeze develops. && .MARINE... Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025 High pressure ridging across Florida and into the eastern gulf will dominate the weather today and into the weekend. This will keep rain- free conditions and breezy southeast winds around 10-15 knots and seas 2-4 feet across the eastern gulf waters. The next chance of showers and storms will come next Monday and Tuesday as a cold front moves through the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025 Warm weather, rain-free conditions and breezy southeast winds will continue for today and into the weekend as high pressure ridges across Florida. RH values will remain above critical levels through the weekend as well. The only fire concern will be some high dispersions the next few days due to breezy southeast winds. A cold front moves through the area next Monday and Tuesday bringing a chance of showers and storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 71 91 72 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 91 69 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 91 67 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 91 69 89 71 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 93 63 92 65 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 88 72 87 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn UPDATE/AVIATION...Giarratana DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce