700
FXUS62 KTBW 111815
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
215 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Ridging is building back in across the state as an MCS persists over
the E Gulf this afternoon. A strong SSE flow has settled across the
region in response as thunderstorms continue to develop just
offshore and - as of 2PM - in SWFL. Overall coverage is expected to
increase over the next few hours as sea breeze collisions take
place, with the bulk of the activity consolidating along the FL West
Coast by this evening.

The overall moisture content has declined substantially since this
time yesterday. The 12Z sounding came in with a PWAT of 1.98 inches.
However, the latest ACARS soundings are showing a current PWAT of
closer to 1.6 inches. Indeed, this is further supported by the lack
of mid and high level clouds across much of the peninsula.

These factors favor lower coverage and generally later convective
initiation across West Central Florida and the Nature Coast. The
storms that do form have an elevated risk of producing strong wind
gusts - both because the mean flow is approximately 18 knots and
because of drier air mixing down towards the surface to increase
parcel accelerations. The good news is that the heavy rainfall
threat is much lower today, given that individual thunderstorms
should continue moving at a much quicker pace than previous days.

Today is the transition back towards a more typical summertime
pattern. Over the next several days, ridging will build back in
overhead with the flow gradually shifting from ESE to more E, and
eventually rather light and variable. As the ridge settles overhead,
this could lead to stronger subsidence that suppresses thunderstorm
development and pushes temperatures higher. If enough low-level
moisture remains present (which looks to be the case as it is August
after all), then this could lead to heat indices of 108 to 112
degrees near the end of the week.

Nevertheless, at least some thunderstorm development is likely to
continue each day. Timing should continue to be in the afternoon to
early evening, as one would most commonly expect for this time of
year. So while there could be some nuances and potentially warmer
temperatures towards the end of the week, the overall expectation is
for summertime weather to continue through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Thunderstorms are moving through SWFL now, with impacts expected at
SWFL terminals. With a strong SE flow and a little less moisture,
thunderstorm activity is otherwise delayed so far. However,
conditions remain favorable for thunderstorms later this evening,
with MVFR to IFR conditions and gusty, erratic winds likely if
thunderstorms move over terminals. There is also a higher potential
for microbursts this evening. For tomorrow and the next few days, a
typical afternoon/evening period for thunderstorms will persist
at all terminals, generally after 18Z to 19Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Higher waves continue offshore across northern waters in close
proximity to a large but disorganized thunderstorm cluster over the
E Gulf. Some shower and thunderstorm activity is also continuing
closer to the coast, with locally hazardous winds and seas in the
vicinity. This will gradually subside over the next couple days,
with a more typical summertime pattern returning. This will favor
lighter winds and seas during the day, with a window for
thunderstorms primarily in the evening and overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Ample low-level moisture remains to support high RH values, despite
some drying of the atmosphere aloft. Enough of this moisture also
remains to keep thunderstorms in the forecast through the week,
albeit with less coverage overall towards the end of the week.
Generally an ESE to E flow will persist, turning onshore near the
coast during the afternoon. Fire weather concerns are low at this
time for the remainder of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  94  80  93 /  30  70  40  60
FMY  77  94  77  94 /  30  80  30  70
GIF  77  94  77  95 /  20  70  20  70
SRQ  76  93  76  92 /  30  70  40  60
BKV  74  94  74  93 /  30  60  30  60
SPG  79  91  79  90 /  30  60  40  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 7
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Flannery