818
FXUS62 KTBW 221955
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
255 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

A broad longwave trough is the dominant upper-level weather feature
across much of the CONUS. Closer to the surface, a frontal boundary
remains to the south over the Florida Straights as a large area of
surface ridging settles over the E CONUS. Satellite imagery is quite
impressive, particularly along the Northern Gulf Coast where clear
skies continue to reveal the snow cover on the ground. An
impressive, and rare, sight to see.

Closer to us, though, considerable cloudiness continues. While a
northerly flow is in place, advecting cooler air into the region,
the airmass is maritime polar, rather than continental polar. Thus,
the column remains saturated and conditionally unstable. A thick
blanket of clouds has remained in response, keeping temperatures
cold and in the 30s and 40s outside SWFL, where temperatures have
climbed to into the mid-50s. A brief midday clearing helped get
temperatures up a little warmer in this area. This same cloud cover
should keep temperatures moderated overnight. Only Levy County is
expected to drop below freezing tonight as such.

Much like yesterday, another lifting warm front favors additional
overrunning precip tomorrow, with thick cloud cover and cold
temperatures remaining. As today`s high temps are falling fall short
of expectations (and in some spots may break daily records for the
lowest high temperatures), persistence says this is likely again
tomorrow. As such, keeping temps in the mid 40s to low 50s tomorrow
as well. This setup suggests tomorrow will be another miserable
cold, rainy day.

Late in the day and overnight, it does look like things will truly
begin to dry out more, leading to a scenario where skies should
begin clearing. As another front pushes through, this will favor
Friday and Saturday mornings being even colder, perhaps the coldest
mornings of the season in Central and SWFL. This is due in large
part to more efficient radiational cooling with clear skies and
lighter winds.

Beginning on Saturday afternoon, however, a gradual warming starts
to place. The flow is expected to begin veering to more of an
easterly direction and eventually ESE. This will allow warm air
advection to take place moderating temperatures back into the 70s.
After several chilly days (and a couple more to go), there is light
at the end of the tunnel.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 252 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

With a saturated atmosphere in place, low clouds continue to
linger across the region, with MVFR to IFR CIGs in place. There is
no real change in conditions for the next 24+ hours (other than
increasing rain chances tomorrow morning as another warm front
brings overrunning precip back), suggesting that these conditions
will continue until at least tomorrow night before VFR slowly
returns.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

Elevated winds and seas are declining across coastal waters as an
area of low pressure pulls away. However, winds remain strong
enough that small craft should continue to exercise caution
through the day. Continued improvement is expected through the
remainder of the week, but some showers are possible again
tomorrow. Even as winds decline, seas will remain in the 2 to 4
foot offshore.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

No fire weather concerns for the next few days as ample moisture
remains to keep RH values above critical thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  42  51  37  54 /  20  20  10   0
FMY  49  56  44  61 /  30  40  10   0
GIF  44  52  38  57 /  10  40  10   0
SRQ  45  53  40  55 /  20  30  10   0
BKV  35  49  30  54 /  10  20   0   0
SPG  45  51  42  53 /  20  30  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-
     Inland Hernando-Inland Levy-Sumter.

     High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday for
     Coastal Levy-Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Coastal
     waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

Flannery