299
FXUS62 KTBW 120752
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
352 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

A weak cold front that has been stalled in the Gulf will start to
push east and head through the state today. This will help to
continue our wet pattern with strong southerly flow bringing deep
tropical moisture over the area. This will result in widespread
showers and isolated thunderstorms through much of the day. The
front will be moving through the state by the evening hours bringing
drier air behind it.

Behind the front we will see the sunshine return to the state as
winds shift to the west. A few isolated storms will still be
possible again on Tuesday but will be much lower in coverage
compared to the last couple of days. As we go through the second
half of the week and into our weekend high pressure will start to
settle back into the state as temperatures start to rise again. By
Friday and the weekend we can expect highs back into the mid 90`s.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Deep tropical moisture will continue to bring us widespread
showers and isolated thunderstorms through the evening hours.
Things will start to dry out behind the front starting in the
evening. MVFR and IFR conditions will be possible inside of
heavier showers and thunderstorms. Winds will mainly be out of the
south for much of the period before a westerly shift in the
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

A weak cold front in the Gulf has brought deep tropical
moisture and breezy conditions out of the south. Winds will be
between 10 to 15 knots today with widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms. The front will be pushing through the state by Monday
evening which will help to start drying us out and helping to bring
wind speeds down. Winds are expected to be out of the south and
southwest for the rest of the week around 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Deep tropical moisture over the area thanks to a weak cold
front in the Gulf is helping to bring widespread showers across the
area. This will hopefully help with our drought conditions across
the state. The front will push through Monday evening bringing
drier air behind it for the rest of the week. This will leave most
of us rain free but RHs will be staying well above average. &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  72  84  74 /  90  20  20   0
FMY  83  71  87  69 / 100  40  10   0
GIF  82  68  86  69 /  90  30  20   0
SRQ  83  71  84  72 /  80  20  10  10
BKV  82  65  84  65 /  80  10  30   0
SPG  81  74  83  75 /  80  20  20  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Fleming