206
FXUS62 KTBW 091816
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
216 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Broad surface high pressure east of the Bahamas continues to ridge
westward across south Florida and into the eastern gulf. This will
keep a warm and humid environment over the area through the day. A
little farther to the north and west, an area of low pressure
continues to develop over the northern gulf coast near
Louisiana/Mississippi. The associated warm front and stationary
boundary extends eastward from the low along the northern gulf
coast, along the GA/FL line and into the western Atlantic. Some
showers and isolated storms have been firing along the boundary
through the morning and early afternoon. The associated cold front
remains well to the west in the west-central gulf. These features
will traverse eastward over the next 24 hours, with the cold front
moving through the area late this evening into the early morning
hours on Monday. The Storm Prediction Center continues to hold parts
of the Nature Coast in a Marginal Risk for severe storms as this
front moves across northern Florida. There is also a Marginal Risk
for Excessive Rainfall for parts of Levy County. Shower and storm
activity will pick up after sunset this evening and early morning
hours, primarily over the northern Nature Coast and northeast gulf
waters. The main line of showers and storms will then move
southeastward toward the Tampa Bay area around sunrise on Monday
morning, and then over southwest Florida by late morning. Latest
guidance has most of the shower and storm activity south and east of
the area by sunset on Monday as high pressure builds in from the
west producing clearing conditions through the end of the week. A
big cool down is not expected behind this system. Daytime highs
today will top out in the mid 70`s to mid 80`s. The highs for Monday
and Tuesday will top out only in the 70`s, then warming up back into
the 70`s and 80`s for the mid and latter part of the week. Overnight
lows remain in the 60`s tonight, then cooling into the 40`s and 50`s
on Tuesday through Thursday mornings, then warming to near or above
average for the remainder of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

VFR will prevail for the first half of the period. A cold front
approaches the area from the northwest late in the period with
SHRA/TSRA as well as some MVFR/IFR CIGs possible after 10/09Z
spreading from north to south. South-southwest winds around 6-12
knots will prevail early period, then increasing 10-15 knots with
gusts as high as 27 knots on Monday morning as the cold front
approaches the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

High pressure ridging across south Florida and into the eastern gulf
will keep a southerly wind flow around 10-15 knots and seas 2 feet
or less through the day. The next weather system is taking shape
over the northern gulf coast states and will bring scattered showers
and isolated storms to the area late this evening through Monday
afternoon as the area of low pressure and cold front move through
the area. Showers and storms will clear the waters by mid-afternoon
on Monday with clearing conditions expected. However, winds will
increase in the vicinity of and behind this cold front, with Small
Craft Advisory conditions expected by mid-morning on Monday and
continuing through Tuesday morning. This has warranted the issuance
of a Small Craft Advisory all day Monday until late morning on
Tuesday. High pressure will fill in over the eastern gulf by Tuesday
afternoon producing lighter winds and abating seas for the middle to
latter part of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Abundant moisture ahead of and in the vicinity of a cold front that
is expected to move through the area late tonight into Monday will
keep humidity values above critical levels through Monday. Scattered
showers and isolated storms can be expected late this evening and
continuing through Monday afternoon. Gusty winds ahead of and in the
vicinity of the front will produce some high dispersions on Monday.
The front moves south and east of the area by Monday evening and
high pressure builds in from the west bringing rain-free conditions
back to the area for the the middle to latter part of next week.
Some critical humidity values expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, but
it doesn`t appear that the winds will be above 15 mph, so no Red
Flag Warning should be needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  67  71  56  73 /  60  60   0   0
FMY  68  78  56  77 /  10  80   0   0
GIF  67  74  52  76 /  30  70   0   0
SRQ  67  74  58  73 /  50  70   0   0
BKV  63  71  48  74 /  70  60   0   0
SPG  67  71  58  72 /  60  60   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from Monday morning through Tuesday
     evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal
     Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for
     Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from
     Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa
     Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Shiveley