465
FXUS62 KTBW 070810
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
310 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

A strong upper-level ridge remains centered off the east coast of
Florida, steering Hurricane Rafael away from the west coast, and
leaving a breezy easterly flow in place as the surface high remains
off the Mid-Atlantic states. Rafael is the main feature of note, and
still exacting some influence on our weather.

Most notably, a deep moisture surge has entered into our area. The
0Z sounding came in with a PWAT value of 2.30 inches. Not only is
this well above climatological norms for this date, it smashes the
previous PWAT record for the day by 0.18 inches. In fact, the
atmosphere is far more reflective of late August or September,
rather than the middle of November.

This setup is only possible because of Rafael. However, the mean
flow also highlights why, despite record-breaking PWATs, we are not
seeing more convection: subsidence. All the rising air with upper-
level divergence at Rafael`s core is sinking back down over us.
While there is plenty of moisture, the downward air flow is just
not conducive to support much in the way of convection. Rather,
the trapped moisture and downward push is continuing to keep low
clouds around; that will likely continue until late today when
Rafael`s influence begins to wane with a more westward track
shift.

Meanwhile, easterly flow will continue, albeit gustier today with
the tighter gradient induced by Rafael. As the upper-level pattern
flattens out over the next few days, this will favor ridging
remaining more or less where it is, leaving little reason for
change. Temperatures will remain warm as humidity remains summer-
like. While isolated showers and/or sprinkles are possible, it
should remain generally dry through the weekend with some subsidence
remaining as Rafael slowly drifts and weakens in the Gulf.

Better rain chances creep back in early next week as deeper tropical
moisture collides with a digging trough early next week. As the
trough passes, we could finally see some subtle changes downstream.
Slight drying and temperatures dropping into the low 80s rather than
upper 80s to 90 degrees are the biggest points of note right now. If
you like fall, the next seven days will certainly disappoint.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

Main impact will be MVFR CIGs, which are likely to linger through
the first half of the day as Hurricane Rafael passes to the south
and west. The gradient will also remain stronger, keeping a gusty
easterly flow in place. Can`t completely some quick-passing
showers as well in SWFL, but probs are too low for mention beyond
KRSW and KFMY at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

Seas will continue to build as Rafael continues moving northwest and
eventually due west later today. Swells should peak overnight before
gradually beginning to diminish through tomorrow. However, a
stronger gradient will remain, keeping a breezy easterly flow wave
heights of 2 to 4 feet into early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

Breezy winds will favor high dispersions over the next few days.
However, high RH values will remain with tropical moisture in place
across the region. There are no red flag concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  73  88  71 /  10   0   0   0
FMY  88  72  89  71 /  20   0   0   0
GIF  88  71  88  71 /  20   0   0   0
SRQ  88  72  88  71 /  20   0   0   0
BKV  88  68  88  68 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  86  74  87  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM EST this morning through Friday
     evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal
     Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for Coastal waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

Flannery