656
FXUS62 KTBW 150725
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
225 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024
Relatively high amplitude pattern today and tonight as a deep
trough over the western U.S. pumps up a downstream ridge from the
Gulf of Mexico to the Great Lakes region. An U/L disturbance will
dig over northern Baja California toward the base of the west
coast trough and will cut-off Saturday and Saturday night, with
brief split flow developing as the northern stream rides over the
cut-off...tracking across the Pacific northwest to the northern
Plains. The cut-off low will open up and lift northeast Sunday and
Sunday night toward the southern Plains...and will continue to
lift northeast across the central Plains and midwest Monday and
Monday night.

This piece of energy will be absorbed by the northern stream on
Tuesday with a more substantial cut-off low developing over the
Upper Mississippi Valley/midwest Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
associated trough will extend to the Gulf of Mexico. A strong U/L
downstream ridge will extend from the Bahamas to the western
Caribbean.

Low confidence in the extended range, as the
evolution/positioning of both the trough and ridge will likely
play a key role on steering whatever remnant energy/deep layer
moisture remains from what is currently Tropical Storm Sara.
Based on the current NHC track forecast of the storm dissipating
over the Yucatan peninsula, model guidance indicates that whatever
remnant energy/moisture associated with the tropical system is
expected to move off the Yucatan peninsula Monday night or
Tuesday, and move east to northeast ahead of the trough and
around the backside of the U/L ridge toward the Florida peninsula.
This has the potential to impact west central and/or southwest
Florida Tuesday night or Wednesday, and will have to be monitored
closely.  These types of systems can still produce severe
weather/tornadoes given the right conditions. A cold front will
likely push across west central and southwest Florida Wednesday
night or Thursday associated with an east coast trough with much
cooler drier air advecting across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024
LCL MVFR CIGs 020-025 early this morning over southwest Florida. A
cold front is approaching west central Florida and may produce LCL
MVFR CIGs around 025 with areas of light showers. The cold front
will approach terminals across southwest Florida around sunrise.
LCL MVFR CIGs are possible, however the light showers will be
dissipating as they approach the southern terminals. VFR
conditions will develop this morning with skies becoming
predominately SKC by afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 139 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024
SCEC conditions will develop today behind a cold front across the
northern waters, and will spread south to the central and southern
waters tonight. Winds and seas will gradually subside on Saturday.
High pressure will hold over the waters into early next week. Low
confidence in the extended as any remnant energy from Tropical
Storm Sara could move over portions of the waters Tuesday night
and Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 139 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024
Even though drier air will be advecting across west central
Florida today in the wake of a cold front, no fire weather
hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum
afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  81  59  81  62 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  85  61  83  63 /  10   0   0   0
GIF  82  58  82  60 /  20   0   0   0
SRQ  83  59  82  62 /  20   0   0   0
BKV  80  51  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  80  64  80  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Fleming