


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
194 FXUS62 KTBW 040846 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 446 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)... Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Showers and storms have been filtering through the west-central coast this morning. Area of low pressure continues to pull moisture across the peninsula supporting periods of rain through the period. Guidance keep PW values over 2 inches during this time. Additional training of storms is possible today, which could result in isolated minor flooding. Meanwhile, cloud coverage should keep afternoon highs from getting above the upper 80s today and Saturday. && .LONG TERM (SUN-THU)... Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 By early next week, slightly drier air gradually starts to wrap into the area as the trough moves north to northeast. This will bring rain coverage down. However, southwesterly winds prevail with scattered to numerous showers and storms shifting onshore in the late morning and early afternoon, building into the interior through early evening. Temperatures will also increase gradually getting back into the 90s area-wide. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 201 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Periods of showers and storms will continue through the period as area of low pressure gradually moves away. Ample moisture remains in place, but pockets of slightly drier air wraps around the low. Rain will be on and off across terminals, but there should be a break going into the evening. Southwesterly winds prevail and become light into the evening hours. Lower ceilings and vis will be possible near storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 A stalled frontal boundary will continue to support shower and thunderstorm development through the weekend. Southwesterly winds between 10 to 15 knots remain in place today before decreasing to 5 to 10 knots over the weekend. SLightly drier air begins to move behind the disturbance, which will help bring rain chances down some going into early next week. Higher waves and winds are possible near storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Area of low pressure continues to bring ample moisture across the state supporting periods of showers and storms through the period. Southwesterly winds will gradually become northerly as low pressure moves away, before shifting southwesterly again for the weekend. No fire weather concerns are anticipated during this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 77 89 78 / 80 60 80 50 FMY 90 77 90 77 / 80 50 70 30 GIF 90 74 90 75 / 90 50 80 30 SRQ 90 75 89 77 / 90 60 80 50 BKV 90 72 90 73 / 90 50 80 40 SPG 88 77 87 78 / 80 60 80 60 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle