Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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194
FXUS62 KTBW 040846
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
446 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Showers and storms have been filtering through the west-central
coast this morning. Area of low pressure continues to pull
moisture across the peninsula supporting periods of rain through
the period. Guidance keep PW values over 2 inches during this
time. Additional training of storms is possible today, which could
result in isolated minor flooding. Meanwhile, cloud coverage
should keep afternoon highs from getting above the upper 80s
today and Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUN-THU)...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

By early next week, slightly drier air gradually starts to wrap
into the area as the trough moves north to northeast. This will
bring rain coverage down. However, southwesterly winds prevail with
scattered to numerous showers and storms shifting onshore in the
late morning and early afternoon, building into the interior
through early evening. Temperatures will also increase gradually
getting back into the 90s area-wide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Periods of showers and storms will continue through the period as
area of low pressure gradually moves away. Ample moisture remains
in place, but pockets of slightly drier air wraps around the low.
Rain will be on and off across terminals, but there should be a
break going into the evening. Southwesterly winds prevail and
become light into the evening hours. Lower ceilings and vis will
be possible near storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

A stalled frontal boundary will continue to support shower and
thunderstorm development through the weekend. Southwesterly winds
between 10 to 15 knots remain in place today before decreasing to
5 to 10 knots over the weekend. SLightly drier air begins to move
behind the disturbance, which will help bring rain chances down
some going into early next week. Higher waves and winds are
possible near storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Area of low pressure continues to bring ample moisture across the
state supporting periods of showers and storms through the period.
Southwesterly winds will gradually become northerly as low pressure
moves away, before shifting southwesterly again for the weekend. No
fire weather concerns are anticipated during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  77  89  78 /  80  60  80  50
FMY  90  77  90  77 /  80  50  70  30
GIF  90  74  90  75 /  90  50  80  30
SRQ  90  75  89  77 /  90  60  80  50
BKV  90  72  90  73 /  90  50  80  40
SPG  88  77  87  78 /  80  60  80  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme
DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle