917
FXUS62 KTBW 201406
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1006 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Radar imagery shows scattered showers and isolated storms drifting
northeastward across the northern Gulf waters but this activity
appears to be on a weakening trend and conditions have been dry
so far this morning over land areas. With the position of the
Atlantic ridge axis across the central Florida peninsula, the west
coast sea breeze will spread further inland for northern portions
of the area across the Nature Coast as low level flow is slightly
more southwesterly there but a more southeast flow particularly
south of I-4 will keep the sea breeze collision closer to the
western side of the peninsula. As a result, scattered to numerous
showers and storms will develop late afternoon and evening with
the greatest coverage expected to be along/near the I-4 corridor
around Polk/Sumter counties southward into southwest Florida where
activity there should be a bit closer to the coast. In these
areas, PoPs are in the 65%-80% range and areas a bit closer to
the coast across west central Florida will be peak around
40%-60%. Given the moist atmospheric environment with PWATs around
2" or so and slow storm motions to the N-NE, locally heavy
rainfall will be the main concern, particularly in poor drainage
areas but occasional generally sub-severe gusty winds will also
be possible. Other than some minor tweaks to PoPs this morning
based on recent CAM guidance and radar trends, the ongoing
forecast remains in good shape with no other changes planned.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Expect the fairly typical summertime pattern to continue through
the weekend and next week with stacked ridging over the region from
the W Atlantic extending over the N FL Peninsula and into the N
Gulf with generally a SE flow regime for the CWA. The warm and
humid conditions will continue as well with heat index values of
102-107. SAL is also expected to intermittently move through the
region next week with minor impacts on POPs. Expect late
morning/early afternoon showers and storms along the west coast
sea breeze drifting inland and producing outflow boundaries,
then the E coast seabreeze produces late afternoon inland
collisions that will eventually push the convection back towards
the W coast in the evening that moves offshore overnight through
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 754 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024
Surface winds are mostly out of the SE this morning but will
gradually shift onshore later in the day as the sea breeze spreads
inland. Scattered to numerous TSRA is expected to develop along
the sea breeze with the greatest precipitation chances expected to
occur from 19Z-00Z. This activity could result in brief IFR
restrictions this afternoon and evening before tapering off after
01Z-02Z tonight with SE winds becoming less than 5 kts overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
The Bermuda high pressure ridge axis is expected to remain in the
region with fairly typical summertime conditions through the
weekend and into next week with afternoon into evening seabreeze
thunderstorms daily. No headlines are expected but winds and seas
will be higher near storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A typical warm and humid summertime pattern will continue with
afternoon into evening seabreeze thunderstorms daily. No fire
weather concerns expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  79  93  80 /  60  50  70  40
FMY  92  78  94  78 /  70  30  70  30
GIF  95  77  95  78 /  70  50  60  20
SRQ  93  78  94  78 /  40  50  60  40
BKV  93  75  94  75 /  60  40  80  30
SPG  92  82  94  82 /  50  50  70  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hubbard