375
FXUS62 KTBW 080035
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
735 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 732 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

No changes made to the afternoon forecast package aside from a
Marine Dense Fog Advisory being issued for the northern coastal
waters through early Saturday afternoon, with grids remaining in
good shape regarding expected low cloud/mist and fog evolution
this evening through Saturday morning. Latest satellite imagery
reveals a swath of low clouds and areas of dense fog extending
southeast from Apalachee Bay into coastal Nature Coast locations
from Levy southward through Pasco County. Traffic and local
weatherstem cams just prior to nightfall still showed immediate
coastal areas as mainly low clouds, but gradually appears to be
transitioning to mist following nightfall. Expect fog development
to follow suit overnight, while the entire area spreads south and
east to encompass Nature Coast and WCFL areas later tonight.
Additional fog development expected across S interior/SWFL
locations, but reasoning still leans toward slightly less
impactful conditions there compared areas further north. Similar
to previous nights, a Dense Fog Advisory will likely be required
later tonight as conditions deteriorate, initially for coastal
locations followed by areas further inland as the night
progresses. Foggy conditions will linger beyond sunrise before
improving through the morning with mostly sunny skies by
afternoon, while inclement conditions look likely to persist for
some immediate coastal locations into the afternoon owing to
lingering sea fog.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

A ridge of high pressure remains in control across the Florida
peninsula. With the surface ridge centered just west of the Florida
peninsula, and a very weak pressure gradient in place across the
state, the surface background flow is light and variable. Really,
the only source of wind through the day is the sea breeze. Water
temperatures remain substantially cooler than afternoon
temperatures, thus allowing for the summer-like occurrence.
Particularly at the coast, this will help keep afternoon highs in
the upper 70s to right around 80 degrees each afternoon.

This pattern is solidly locked in through the middle of next week,
suggesting little change in weather conditions for the next few
days. Thus, the main weather impact through the weekend is likely to
be fog. With enough low-level moisture and the right combination of
overnight conditions (i.e. mostly clear skies, calm winds, and
efficient radiational cooling), the setup is primed for this to
occur each night. Additionally, cool SSTs coupled with a warm and
moist enough airmass over coastal waters favors additional sea fog
as well that is likely to spill onshore in the evening across the
Nature Coast, and overnight into Central Florida. In areas where fog
does occur, expect reduced visibilities, potentially less than 1/2
of a mile. Remember to slow down, use low beams, and allow extra
travel time.

By the middle of next week, the ridge slides farther east and the
winds turn southerly. This will advect an increasingly warm and
humid airmass back into the area. Daytime highs for the middle of
next are pushing 90 degrees inland, with some moderation still
expected near the coast. Additionally, this flow should begin to
advect some deeper moisture back into the area closer to the end of
the week. There could be a few isolated showers in response if
moisture surges occur during peak heating hours, especially along
the sea breeze boundary.

Rain chances will further increase as the next cold front approaches
later Thursday or Friday. Most of the upper-level dynamics pull away
before this front gets here, however, suggesting that the front will
be pretty diffuse and may even wash out over the region. Additional
cloud cover supports at least some reduction in daytime highs, but
there is still an open question about how much this frontal system
will impact conditions heading into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Maintained trend from previous cycle as fog related IFR/LIFR
conditions expected overnight for northern terminals, with less
certainty for southern terminals as far as impacts. Most likely
timeframe remains generally the 08-15Z window for greatest
impacts, followed by improving conditions through the morning with
VFR likely returning late morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1010 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Light winds and seas continue as high pressure remains in control
for the next several days. In this setup, the main weather impact
will be the potential for low visibility primarily during the
overnight and morning hours as sea fog persists across coastal
waters. Some patches could linger even during daytime hours in
spots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 243 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

With a stable high pressure airmass and light winds, dispersions are
forecast to be on the lower side through the weekend. Fog is the
primary weather impact expected overnight through mid-morning each
day into next week. With light winds and RH values remaining above
critical thresholds, there are no red flag concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  61  80  62  80 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  63  85  63  84 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  62  84  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  60  80  60  79 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  54  82  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  62  76  62  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for Coastal waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Flannery
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana