Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
728 FXUS62 KTBW 050110 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 810 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 810 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 The moderating trend has gotten underway as high pressure has settled over the area. This high will be suppressed further south Thursday with a southwest to west flow developing as the next cold front moves through the southeast states. This boundary will move across the region late Thursday night and Friday ushering in our next cool down. However, this cool spell is not expected to be quite as cold and mainly just Friday night before temperatures moderate during the rest of the weekend. Current forecast looks on track with no changes needed. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 810 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF forecast period with light and variable winds tonight into Thursday morning, then becoming southwest to west at 5 to 10 knots late Thursday morning/midday through the afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 118 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 A surface high pressure system situated just north of Florida will dominate the pattern the rest of today into tomorrow. This will help the temperatures moderate and keep the low temperatures around the lower to upper 40s with a few areas in northern Levy County still possibly dropping just below 40. High temperatures Thursday will be back to the mid 70s. This pattern will be interrupted momentarily by a weak, mostly dry cold front moving through the area overnight Thursday into Friday morning. Temperatures will once again dip down to the mid to upper 30s Saturday morning. However, they will rebound by Sunday. A stronger surface ridge will settle back in over the area bringing warmer conditions with much of the week returning to the 80s. Moisture will also increase through the weeks and a few showers could also sneak into the forecast by mid week. && .MARINE... Issued at 118 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 High pressure sliding south over the area will keep marine hazards at bay today and tomorrow. A weak cold front will move south over the waters overnight Thursday into Friday morning, bringing increased winds over the northern waters. NE/E winds remain elevated around 10-15kts over the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 118 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 RH values will continue to increase by the end of the week as winds decrease today and tomorrow. A few spots of below critical values are still possible today and tomorrow, however winds will be below criteria for any warnings. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 51 72 59 69 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 52 76 57 77 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 49 76 57 72 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 50 73 60 73 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 41 73 50 67 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 56 71 62 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Close DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Delerme