312
FXUS62 KTBW 010021
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
821 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 821 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Most of the convection has moved offshore with some areas of
light to moderate rain across the Nature Coast south into Pinellas
county. This precipitation will continue to weaken over the next
few hours on land with isolated to scattered convection still
possible over the coastal waters overnight. Monday still looks
like a slightly drier day with isolated convection possible around
midday into early afternoon as the bay/sea breezes develop and
move inland then becoming more scattered over inland areas during
the late afternoon and evening. Overall the current forecast looks
on track with no changes needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 821 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Convection has ended at the TAF sites with some lingering
MVFR/local IFR ceilings here and there. VFR conditions should
return overnight into Monday morning. Slightly drier air looks to
delay the onset of convection, but as the bay/sea breezes develop
and move inland there could be a few storms popup during the
midday/early afternoon near the coast. Most of the convection will
move inland during the late afternoon and evening with LAL, PGD,
FMY, and RSW continuing to have a chance to see a shower or
thunderstorm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

An upper-level impulse of energy is propagating across the state as
relatively zonal flow continues to dominate the synoptic pattern. At
the surface, weak ridging remains in place, with the axis shifted a
little farther north today. In response, an ENE flow (similar to
regime 2) continues to be in place.

This flow is more saturated than normal, with PW values in excess of
2 inches noted today. This is towards the upper-bound of climatology
for this date. When coupled with the ample instability and
forcing, this is why scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms have been ongoing today, and why they are expected
to continue this evening. Across the Tampa Bay area and the Nature
Coast, the west coast sea breeze has been delayed, and is only
now just getting underway. However, storms are beginning to fire
across this region now as well, suggesting activity will continue
to increase across Central and North Florida.

After an active day today, however, some slightly drier air is
forecast to move into the region tomorrow. While far from preventing
convection entirely, the overall coverage of storms does look to be
lower, with PW values dropping down towards 1.6 to 1.8 inches. This
looks short-lived, though. As the ridge axis continues to shift,
ushering back an ESE flow, the drier air should quickly be mixed out
by Tuesday, with more widespread activity returning through the
remainder of the work week.

Towards the weekend, there are indications a more ENE flow could
return, and then more neutral flow for Saturday. Scattered to
numerous storms will continue each day, but could be lower coverage
again on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop this afternoon, moving
offshore through the evening. Locally hazardous winds and seas are
possible in the vicinity of storms. Otherwise, a light ENE to ESE
flow is expected, turning onshore during the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Ample moisture remains to support scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms each day. Tomorrow looks to have the least coverage
for the week with as ESE flow settles in. Winds could turn onshore
near the coast during the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  91  79  93 /  20  20  10  70
FMY  75  91  77  92 /  20  50  10  70
GIF  75  94  77  95 /  10  40  20  70
SRQ  75  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  70
BKV  73  92  75  94 /  70  30  10  70
SPG  80  91  82  93 /  20  20  10  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Flannery
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana