Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
754 FXUS62 KTBW 161747 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 147 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 144 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Gusty marine winds each night, improving during the day - Rain-free conditions through Saturday, then a very slight chance of showers on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 144 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure remains aloft over the southeastern U.S. this afternoon while surface high pressure near the Great Lakes ridges southward. These features will slowly shift eastward over the next couple of days as a trough digs through the central U.S. and a surface frontal boundary moves into the southeast. This front will be the only (relatively) interesting thing in the forecast for the next week. Over the past few days, models were showing a slight chance for some showers, but these have continued to back off on the amount of moisture available, so for now, we will show barely a rain chance for the very northern part of the forecast area Sunday afternoon. High pressure builds in over the southeast behind the boundary and quickly shifts eastward, keeping warm and dry conditions in the forecast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 144 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with mainly northeast winds continuing. && .MARINE... Issued at 144 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Northeast to east winds continue for the next few days, increasing to exercise caution levels each night. No headlines are expected during the daytime hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 144 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 No fire weather concerns for the next few days as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. No significant fog is expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 70 87 67 86 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 69 87 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 68 85 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 68 87 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 62 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 71 84 68 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$