151
FXUS62 KTBW 241757
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
157 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Scattered showers and storms continue throughout the rest of the
afternoon and evening as we remain in this moist pattern thanks to a
stationary front draped over N Florida. Main concern still remains
heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding in urban and low lying
areas. Monday is shaping out to be very similar to this weekend.
Lower temperatures and drought improvement are two silver linings to
the rainy pattern we`ve been in.  Another frontal boundary begins to
push over the area by mid week as an upper level trough digs into
the southeast. This will bring a couple days of slightly drier air,
especially for the nature coast. Most of the moisture will be
concentrated over central to south FLorida during this time. By the
end of the week moisture increases everywhere once again, leading
to higher rain chances throughout with a typical summertime
pattern expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Moisture continues to stream in from the Gulf causing periods of
reduced flight categories throughout the area. This will continue
into the evening before a reprieve overnight. However, by early
Monday morning showers and storms will already begin to make their
way back towards the coast and move on shore. Leading to another day
of scattered showers and storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 155 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Showers and storms continue to develop over the waters and move
onshore through the remainder of the day into the evening. Strong,
erratic winds and frequent lightning can be expected with any
storm. Marine conditions will continue to be less than ideal as we
head into Monday as the pattern remains messy.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Fire weather concerns remain minimal as deep moisture remains over
the area. Multiple rounds of showers and storms continue today and
tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  88  79  91 /  50  80  30  50
FMY  78  89  77  92 /  50  60  20  50
GIF  76  89  76  92 /  40  80  20  70
SRQ  78  88  78  91 /  60  80  30  50
BKV  74  88  73  91 /  50  70  20  50
SPG  79  86  79  88 /  60  80  30  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle